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Markets Rattle as Trump Targets China on Rare Earths
Markets reeled today after Donald Trump’s morning post accused China of “hostile behavior,” threatened a “massive increase” in tariffs,...
Henri Bardon
Oct 10, 20252 min read


Policy Gridlock, Lipid Tightness, and the Biofuel Ceiling
As Washington’s shutdown drags on, the conversation across U.S. agriculture has turned from frustration to self-examination. Soybean...
Henri Bardon
Oct 9, 20253 min read


BOPO Surges as Indonesia Delays B50
The biodiesel complex finally broke out of its muted pattern today as BOPO surged more than 6%, marking the strongest daily move in weeks...
Henri Bardon
Oct 8, 20252 min read


The New World Grain Order: Brazil’s record soybean flows and Europe’s tightening biodiesel spreads reveal a shifting balance where U.S. supply chains are left scrambling under political paralysis and
Gold broke through the $4,000 mark today, a symbol of how far risk sentiment has flipped as Washington’s shutdown drags on. With agencies...
Henri Bardon
Oct 7, 20253 min read


Europe’s Paper Frenzy Meets Waste Oil Uncertainty
Late in week 40, European biodiesel markets saw an explosion of paper trading with close to 200,000 tons exchanged across UCOME and FAME...
Henri Bardon
Oct 6, 20252 min read


The Oilseed Overhang Grows
The backdrop today is still the U.S. shutdown, which has turned more combative and acrimonious— raising the odds it runs longer than...
Henri Bardon
Oct 3, 20252 min read


Flat Price Fallout Hits Biodiesel Hard
The latest EIA report rattled energy markets with a 3% drop in U.S. product demand alongside a build in crude and refined stocks, a clear...
Henri Bardon
Oct 2, 20252 min read


Golden Week Weakness, Paper Spreads, and RINs Lift — A Market Waiting for a Trigger
Golden Week holidays began across China and much of Asia, weighing on sentiment as gasoil structure softened despite Russia extending...
Henri Bardon
Oct 1, 20252 min read


Shutdown Paralysis Meets Bearish Funds — UCOME Paper Leads the Way
As the US government edges toward a shutdown at midnight, biofuels policy finds itself again in the crosshairs. Darling Ingredients...
Henri Bardon
Sep 30, 20253 min read


Gasoil Slips Below $700, UCOME/RME +44 — Shutdown Adds Pressure on RINs
Brent expiry added some pressure across the barrel, with ICE gasoil sliding more than a standard deviation to break below $700. The...
Henri Bardon
Sep 29, 20252 min read


BOPO Risks a Repeat Downturn as Soybean Oil Crumbles
Soybean oil’s deteriorating position continues to weigh on BOPO, though a repeat of Q4 2024’s collapse to –200 versus palm oil does look...
Henri Bardon
Sep 26, 20253 min read


Argentina Reinstates Export Taxes as Russian Crude Floods the Water, Refining Margins Explode
Argentina has reapplied export taxes on grains and by-products after briefly lifting them upon reaching a $7 billion sales cap, ARCA...
Henri Bardon
Sep 25, 20253 min read


Fuel Shortages, River Lows, Shadow Crude: Fragile Balances Define Energy Flows
Gasoil remains firmly backwardated even as China begins to release cargoes ahead of Golden Week. Asia’s spot market saw more tenders and...
Henri Bardon
Sep 24, 20252 min read


From Washington to Buenos Aires: Policy Shocks Rock Biofuels: EPA punts RVOs into 2026, Argentina’s peso peg drives tax relief, and BOGO/BOPO spreads sink to multi-year lows
EPA confirmed in a court filing that the reallocation debate over small refinery exemptions will prevent any final RVOs from being issued...
Henri Bardon
Sep 23, 20252 min read


EU Boxes Out U.S. SAF but Not China, D4 Premiums Shrink, LCFS Nears $50
Despite a near 4% draw in ARA oil product stocks, ICE gasoil futures slid nearly 2% on the day. Traders point to lingering concerns over...
Henri Bardon
Sep 19, 20254 min read


China Quotas Flood Asia, RME Margins Too Wide, U.S. Harvest Choked by Rivers, and D4 RINs Collapse on Fresh SRE Petitions
China has issued 8.4 million tons of refined product export quotas in its third batch this year. This will add more gasoline, jet fuel,...
Henri Bardon
Sep 18, 20253 min read


Fed Cuts, EPA Confusion, Asia Refining Shifts — Europe dependency sets HVO rotation
The dollar index plunged below 97 today after the Fed confirmed another two rate cuts before year-end. With DXY breaking down, the move...
Henri Bardon
Sep 17, 20253 min read


Harvest Insights: Navigating the U.S. Biodiesel Landscape
Current Crop Conditions and Market Dynamics Harvest is now underway in the U.S. The USDA reports that 5% of soybeans have been cut across...
Henri Bardon
Sep 16, 20253 min read


Sustainability at Sea Meets Abundance on Land: WTO Pact, NOPA Crush, Diwali Buying, and U.S. LCFS Momentum
The WTO’s Global Fisheries Agreement came into force today, marking the organisation’s first sustainability-focused deal. The pact bans...
Henri Bardon
Sep 15, 20253 min read


Biodiesel Outlook After WASDE: Plenty of Feedstock, Tougher Demand Ahead
The September WASDE gave little comfort to oilseed markets. U.S. soybean acres were lifted slightly while yields edged down, leaving...
Henri Bardon
Sep 12, 20252 min read
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