The biofuel industry is evolving rapidly, driven by technological advances, shifting regulations, and growing environmental concerns. Staying ahead means understanding the latest market dynamics and anticipating future shifts. In this post, I’ll break down the key factors shaping the biofuel sector today and offer insights into what the future holds. Whether you’re optimizing operations or strategizing for growth, these perspectives will help you navigate the complex landscap

Global macro and energy complexes are closing the week under the weight of severe geopolitical escalation and unprecedented state intervention. Traditional safe-haven assets broke down, with December gold officially cracking below the $4,000/oz threshold to print at $3,995.40/oz. Conversely, physical energy is screaming higher as Iran shifts its maritime attacks from projectiles toward precision engine room hits. Prompt crude spiked, with front-month Brent surging to $116.16/

The global middle distillate and bio-complexes are fracturing along a stark structural fault line today. Yesterday, we warned that persistent weakness in soybean oil was foreshadowing a "winter flush" if key support levels failed to hold. Today, that breakdown occurred: December CME soybean oil (ZLZ26) decisively breached its critical 66.00¢ chart support, printing an intraday low of 65.55¢ and trading at 65.97¢/lb. On the weekly chart, ZL is cleanly breaking down through its

Global middle distillates and bio-complexes are fracturing along a stark structural fault line today, as an explosive prompt squeeze in fossil energy clashes with an increasingly heavy agricultural complex. Prompt fossil fuel is screaming higher: November ULSD touched an intraday peak of $5.0182/gal (+1.3% to $4.98), prompt heating oil cracks over WTI ticked up to $106.32/bbl, and expiring November WTI surged to $110.44 intraday. November–December ULSD backwardation blew out

Global distillates and bio-complexes are opening the week under divergent pressures, as headline geopolitical relief clashes with an aggressive widening in physical curve structure. Prompt energy softened early on—with November ULSD dipping 4.72¢ to $4.8519/gal (-0.98%) and Dec Brent easing $2.18 (-1.57%) to $107.68/bbl—as desks absorbed Washington’s 60-day review waiver on Russian diesel (slated at 2.3 mm bbl this month and scaling to 7.6 mm bbl/month) alongside G7 stock rel

Friday’s energy recovery comes alongside unconfirmed market talk of further military action in the Middle East over the weekend. Timing remains unconfirmed, and price movements alone do not establish the rumours as the cause. November gasoil rose $28.50 to $1,457/mt, while November/December backwardation widened from $41.75 to $45.25/mt, up 8.4%. November/January increased $5.75 to $84/mt. US ULSD reached $4.9116/gal, equivalent to $206.29/bbl, with the heat crack at $104.71/

I expect December soybean oil to test 66 cents/lb following the break below its 50-day moving average. The latest snapshot puts December at 67.15 cents against May at 67.71, leaving 0.56 cents/lb of carry, equivalent to $12.35/mt. Carry narrowed during this snapshot, but nearby oil still commands less value than deferred delivery. November Paranaguá export indications sit 1100–1180 below Chicago, discounts of approximately $24 to $26/mt. Brazil projects a 181.6 million mt soy

EPA’s proposed restoration of 770 million RINs comes with another potential compliance extension, weakening the immediate demand impact of the announcement. The 2025 reporting deadline of October 1, 2026 put compliance 21 months after the start of the obligation year. Automatic extension provisions and separate discretionary deadline changes increasingly dilute the urgency of annual RVOs. The soybean oil carry we have followed over the past six months has repeatedly challenge

The latest US heating-oil quote of $4.9433/gallon puts diesel at $207.62/bbl, with the heating-oil/WTI crack at $113.42/bbl. European gasoil is close to the same outright level: October expired with $1,483/tonne on the screen, roughly $199/bbl using 7.45 barrels per tonne, while November subsequently reached $1,465.75/tonne, approximately $197/bbl. October/November backwardation narrowed to around $20/tonne, but November/January widened from $69.50 to $83/tonne, up 19.4%. US

My call remains the same: diesel spikes into mid-month. October/January ICE gasoil stands at $157.75/tonne backwardation, while November/February still commands $135.25/tonne, showing that the nearby premium extends beyond October’s approaching expiry. Both spreads are below their September peaks, but the curve continues to price a substantial premium for earlier delivery. The nearby heating-oil/WTI crack is $112.19/bbl, calculated from heating oil at $4.8377/gallon and WTI a

Diesel recovered sharply on the supplied afternoon screens. October ICE gasoil stood at $1,379/tonne, up $49.50 against the previous settlement, after this week’s low of $1,309.25 approached moving-average support near $1,303 on the weekly chart. The nearby heating-oil/WTI crack returned above $100 to $103.32/bbl: heating oil at $4.6050/gallon multiplied by 42, less WTI at $90.09/bbl. The displayed 3:2:1 was $67.44/bbl, using the same crude and heating-oil values alongside ga

A quick publishing note: I will be out of pocket and moving to a non-daily posting schedule through October 10 depending on news

EIA’s September outlook gives the diesel market a specific concern for October: its chart projects US distillate inventories falling to approximately 93 million barrels at month-end before recovering in November and December. That is an inventory low, not a forecast of an October price bottom. EIA expects stocks to remain below the 2021–2025 range through year-end and most of 2027, despite the subsequent rebuilding. Its forecast was finalized on September 3 and assumes improv

There is an irony in offering farmers cheaper harvest fuel through an exemption that could weaken demand for their crops. Removing dyed diesel from the US Renewable Fuel Standard could reduce eligible fuel costs while cutting compliance demand supporting biodiesel, renewable diesel and their feedstocks. The proposal follows other relief for refiners: EPA extended the 2025 compliance deadline by 30 days to October 1 and granted small-refinery exemptions covering 1.76 billion R

Friday, September 25 brings another crude-down, gold-up session, but the inventory damage keeps me cautious about the diplomatic optimism. November Brent fell $1.90 to $104.70/bbl while December gold gained $31.50 to $4,329.50/oz. Global observed oil inventories declined 507 million barrels over the first six months of the conflict, averaging 2.8 million b/d. Within that broader draw, China’s above-ground crude tanks lost approximately 68 million barrels. Restoring flows thro

Thursday’s intraday screens showed November Brent at $107.24/bbl, up $4.16, and November WTI at $95.64, up $3.48. The separate diesel-crack chart stood at $108.97/bbl, calculated from ULSD at $4.8696/gal multiplied by 42, less WTI at $95.55/bbl. These are snapshots at different times, rather than a synchronised closing assessment. There is also numerical support for a strong refining-quarter outlook: Marathon Petroleum’s blended benchmark crack averaged $46.17/bbl in July–Aug

The move toward a 90-day U.S. diesel export ban follows the direction I had anticipated, although implementation remains unconfirmed. October heating oil fell 16.57 cents to $4.7764/gal, while December lost only 3.18 cents to $4.5171/gal, compressing October–December backwardation from 39.32 cents to 25.93 cents/gal, a 34.1% contraction. Europe moved in the opposite direction: October ICE gasoil gained $56.25 to $1,485.25/mt, while January gained $27 to $1,286/mt. October–Jan

December/April gasoil is the most disturbing chart today. December at $1,333/mt against April at $1,142 puts backwardation at $191/mt, widening $15.25 on the session as December gained $27.25 and April rose $12. October/January also stands around +$190.50/mt. December fuel commands 16.7% more than April, extending the strength well beyond October delivery. Meanwhile, November Brent traded around $99.15/bbl, down $1.19, as October gasoil gained approximately $26/mt. That diver

Monday’s diesel correction has reduced prices without resolving Europe’s supply problem. Afternoon gasoil traded at $1,432/mt, down $77.25, while Brent stood around $100/bbl. Yet last week’s CIF NWE diesel crack remained at $106.19/bbl after reaching $114.82, and ARA diesel inventories were still 23% below a year earlier. The US–Europe arbitrage was reported largely closed with HOGO around $0.31/gal, despite US refinery utilisation near 98%. Mediterranean exposure is particul

China provided meaningful relief in August, exporting 1.33 million tonnes of diesel, up 42.1% year on year, and a record 2.55 million tonnes of jet fuel, up 41.4%. Those combined 3.88 million tonnes of middle distillates matter against reduced Russian product availability. Reported attacks on three Russian refineries—Slavyansk, Taneco and Syzran—add to the production pressure, while an extension of Russia’s producer diesel-export restrictions from September 30 through October