The biofuel industry is evolving rapidly, driven by technological advances, shifting regulations, and growing environmental concerns....

The shift started with a softer tone from the Trump administration on Iran. Fears of near term military action eased and energy reacted quickly. ICE gasoil slipped back toward 640, removing part of the geopolitical premium built over the past two weeks. Context matters. Gasoil traded as low as 558 on January 6, surged to around 660 by January 14 as rhetoric escalated, and has only partially retraced. Based on that move alone, more than 75 percent of the Iran related risk prem

Vegetable oil markets firmed on January 14 across soyoil, sunflower oil, and biofuel RINs credits. Price action reflects policy, compliance structure, legal risk, and geopolitics rather than tightening agricultural balances.

Tuesday marked a clear turnaround in flat prices, driven by macro and policy risk rather than a change in feedstock fundamentals. ICE gasoil February settled near 654 dollars per ton, up roughly 27 dollars on the day, a gain of about 4.4 percent. CBOT soybean oil followed, with nearby contracts up around 1.1 cents per pound, close to plus 2.2 percent. Despite higher flat prices, Mar BOGO held near 485 to 490 dollars per ton. The lack of spread expansion confirms that the move

The January USDA WASDE set a clearly bearish tone for oilseeds . World soybean ending stocks for 2025/26 are estimated near 123 to 124 million metric tons. Brazil’s soybean crop is marked around 178 million metric tons, which places global carryout near 70 percent of Brazilian production . US soybean ending stocks rose to about 350 million bushels versus trade expectations near 290. This balance sheet leaves little room for oilseed tightness and frames the vegetable oil compl

Energy markets moved into defensive mode ahead of the weekend, driven primarily by geopolitical risk management and position clean-up. ICE gasoil rallied into January expiry as participants reduced exposure before the weekend . The Jan/Apr backwardation moved nearly 30 percent higher on the day to around $9.50 per metric ton, while the Jan/Jul backwardation widened to roughly $20 per metric ton. This price action reflects pre-weekend covering and expiry dynamics rather than a

Europe enters a decisive quarter for RED III because national transposition, not EU level ambition, determines real biofuel demand. RED III is a directive and does not apply automatically. Each member state must transpose it into domestic law. The legal deadline for transposition was 21 May 2025 . Several large member states missed this deadline and still operate under legacy RED II based frameworks. Missing the deadline does not suspend RED III obligations. It increases unce

Energy markets continue to lead the complex lower. ICE gasoil front month trades near 599 dollars per metric ton , and the weekly chart now clearly points to the next technical support around 565 . The Jan–Apr backwardation has compressed to roughly +7.75 dollars per ton , down from around +50 in November , confirming a structural softening rather than a transient move. Gasoil chart just looks terrible.

The theme today is the United States, even though Europe and global vegetable oils continue to shape pricing signals. The US feedstock usage data from October, while backward looking, remains the best structural reference for how early 2026 is unfolding. When combined with current margin screens and energy structure, it paints a difficult picture for advancing the sector .

The year starts with geopolitics tightening rather than easing. USD RUB trades back above 80 and sits near 80.8 after dipping into the high 79s late last week. This level has historically aligned with rising geopolitical risk, not progress on Ukraine. Gold confirms the signal, trading near 4,453 per ounce, close to a one standard deviation move on the day. Energy markets are reacting accordingly. Heating oil futures are higher across the curve, with front months up around 2

Today being New Year’s Eve, I want to wish everyone a Happy New Year while still closing out the year with a proper market read. Liquidity was thin and participation light, but price signals across energy, feedstocks, policy, and biofuels remain consistent.

Flat price support has now broken across the core inputs that anchor biodiesel economics. Both ICE gasoil and CBOT soybean oil have confirmed downside trend damage , with the 20 day weighted moving average now at least $20 per metric ton below the 50 day weighted moving average in each market. This marks a clear shift in momentum after repeated failed recovery attempts and signals that the market is no longer stabilizing.

Global biodiesel markets ended the session with energy structure sending the clearest signal of the day. Jan Apr ICE gasoil backwardation slipped again to 12.50, down roughly 9 percent on the day and now a fraction of early November levels. This move is not about refinery outages or seasonal tightness. It reflects geopolitics. Markets are pricing a Ukraine outcome with a meaningful chance of de escalation. Based on USD RUB trading near 78, FX markets imply a 60 to 65 percent

Today’s market continues to speak through structure rather than headlines. ICE gasoil remains the clearest signal. Front end backwardation strengthened again , with Jan/Apr widening to about plus 13, up roughly 26% on the day, while Jan/Jul moved to about plus 23.50, up close to 30%. This move is concentrated at the front of the curve and points to nearby distillate tightness rather than a broad repricing further out. Ongoing geopolitical tension is not translating into defer

European biodiesel markets stayed active into year end, with paper and physical moving together through mechanical adjustment rather than directional conviction. European paper volume in week 51 reached about 1.02 million metric tons, the highest since week 47 at the end of November near 1.31 million. The increase reflects hedge unwinds and balance sheet cleanup ahead of January, not new length.

Energy is marginally weaker today, but the pressure remains squarely on vegetable oils, with soyoil again the weakest leg of the complex. Front-end structure continues to deteriorate: the Jan/Jul soyoil carry has widened to –1.34 while Jul/Dec has narrowed to around +0.45, a clear signal that near-term surplus is being priced more aggressively while the back end stabilizes. BOPO echoed that softness, sliding nearly 10% on the day to around +98.6 for March, confirming that ve

Energy markets firmed modestly today, with distillates doing just enough work to lean on biofuel spreads without triggering a broader risk-on move. Gasoil was slightly higher, and that mattered mechanically: BOGO softened not because of weakness in bean oil, but because of the energy leg. Jan BOGO is now around +451 , highlighting that recent compression has been driven by gasoil rather than vegetable oil fundamentals. Geopolitics continue to provide a background bid. Tensio

Energy weakness dominated today’s price action, setting the direction for biofuels and vegetable oils. Markets continued to price an easing geopolitical risk premium, with refined products under sustained pressure. The signal from fuels was clear and quantifiable: gasoline is surplus and distillates are losing tightness , and biofuels are adjusting mechanically. In Europe , vegetable oils softened further across the forward curve. Northwest European soyoil values for early-20

European markets closed Monday with pressure concentrated not in outright energy, but in structure and margins. ICE gasoil flat price is trading near $623/mt , down roughly 6% over the past three months , while time spreads continue to erode. Jan/Apr backwardation is now +12.50 , down more than 10% , with Jan/Jul at +22.50 , confirming that front-end tightness continues to fade rather than invert. From a technical perspective, the 20-day weighted DMA is converging toward the