The biofuel industry is evolving rapidly, driven by technological advances, shifting regulations, and growing environmental concerns....

Two wars are ongoing maybe 3 if you count Lebanon and yet cross asset signals remain uneven. Front end equity volatility stayed subdued while longer dated volatility moved higher, signaling regime uncertainty rather than immediate financial stress. USD RUB remained relatively calm near 77, which suggests FX markets are not pricing imminent escalation in Ukraine despite the parallel conflict in the Middle East. Energy markets, however, are clearly pricing risk. ICE gasoil Mar

EPA is advancing the 2026 and 2027 Renewable Volume Obligations at political speed. A working midpoint near 7.5 billion physical gallons of biomass based diesel for 2026 translates into roughly 28.4 million cubic meters. Applying a blended density of 0.835 metric tons per cubic meter, assuming an even split between renewable diesel and FAME biodiesel, yields approximately 23.7 million metric tons. That is the scale. Nearly 24 million metric tons of BBD equivalent is not a com

EPA confirmed it is sending new biofuel blending mandates to the White House with finalization expected by the end of March. At the same time, Washington is reviewing a shift back to gallon based RVOs and the potential removal of the 50 percent reduction in RIN generation for foreign producers. On paper, both changes are bearish RINs. Gallon mandates reduce compliance flexibility. Restoring full RIN eligibility for imports increases potential qualifying gallon supply. Yet D4

ARAG window liquidity remained thin. RME traded at 1,387 per metric ton and FAME0 at 1,337 per metric ton. UCOME did not trade. HVO Class II printed at 2,570 per metric ton, up 10 on the day, while SAF held near 2,250. The clearing interest remains concentrated in conventional grades, with waste based product largely assessed rather than actively exchanged. European inland logistics have shifted materially. Water at Kaub is near 4 meters and upper Rhine gauges such as Maxau h

The most striking feature in the complex remains BOPO above plus 260. At the end of 2024 the spread traded near minus 200. The reversal has occurred despite more comfortable US soy oil stocks and looser global oilseed balances . This is not a classical shortage driven rally. It is a structural repricing. Palm fundamentals are clearly expanding. Global palm oil production is projected to reach 80.7 million tonnes in 2025/26, up 3 percent year on year, with Indonesia at 46.7 mi

D4 RINs closed near 1.539 with intraday trade between roughly 1.515 and 1.560. At 1.54 per RIN, that represents 1.54 dollars per gallon of compliance value embedded in biodiesel economics. March screen margins have turned marginally positive, while May and July remain negative by roughly 15 to 20 cents per gallon even with D4 above 1.50. Forward economics remain dependent on stronger RIN pricing if EPA clarity is delayed into late summer and into the fourth quarter. Chicago M

The story today is policy and geopolitics. D4 RINs pushed higher again with December 2026 printing 1.545 late afternoon, up 0.325 on the session. That strength, combined with a sharp rally in distillate, has pulled the March biodiesel screen crush back into marginally positive territory near 1 cent per gallon. That improvement is isolated to the front. May still shows a loss near 17 cents per gallon and July around 24 cents per gallon. Even with D4 above 1.50, the forward cu

Crude firmed again on stalled Iran talks. WTI March settled at 65.10, up 2.77 or 4.44 percent. Brent April closed at 70.37, up 2.95 or 4.38 percent. ICE gasoil March rallied to 706.25, up 34 dollars or 5.06 percent. D4 RINs did not follow. December 2026 closed at 1.532 with 701 lots traded. The market is clearly waiting for policy. EPA’s 2026 RVO proposal is moving through White House review this week and will become final before end of March according to EPA. That is the ca

The market continues to trade policy expectations against measurable soybean oil supply growth, tightening European crop policy, and reduced Asian liquidity due to Lunar New Year holidays this week. D4 RIN Dec26 settled at 1.520, up 1.333 percent on the session. Market discussion centers on a potential 2026 biomass based diesel mandate at or above 5.2 billion gallons and possible reallocation of prior SRE volumes. No formal EPA proposal has been released. Year round E15 remai

Bean oil attempted another push higher but failed again near 57.75 and settled just under 57 cents per lb. The rejection at the highs coincided with visible selling of at-the-money March calls around the 57.00 to 58.00 strikes . Rather than chasing upside, the market was comfortable selling it. That shift in tone signals distribution and volatility harvesting rather than breakout positioning. Spreads confirmed the softer bias. BOPO fell double digits on the day but still high

D4 RINs traded at 1.502 for Dec26 , up 1.62 percent, yet the March biodiesel screen crush moved further negative to minus 9 cents per gallon. That divergence defines the current market. Your screen crush excludes LCFS and 45Z, but even when you layer those in, the uplift is limited relative to the old BTC structure. LCFS adds roughly 20 cents per gallon on qualifying volumes. 45Z scales with CI. At 35 CI and assuming qualification for the 1.00 rate, the credit is about 26 cen

Into Feb gasoil expiry, the technical divergence between feedstock and distillate is becoming clearer. ICE gasoil March trades around 693 to 695. The 200 day moving average sits near 734, well above current price. The 50 day is near 678 and the 20 day near 675. Price holds above short term averages but remains below the long term average. Structurally, gasoil has not yet reversed its broader downtrend. Gasoil Soybean oil has turned constructive. The 20 day moving average near

Macro tone stayed firm as Iran discussions continued this week, yet structure inside the barrel weakened. Brent Apr Dec backwardation widened to about 3 dollars per barrel, up from near flat at the start of the year. This move reflects geopolitical risk pricing. Downstream markets did not confirm. ICE gasoil Feb Jul backwardation compressed to about 30 dollars per metric ton, down from more than 60 dollars per ton at the end of January. Heating oil curves flattened at the sam

Palm prices continued to firm in outright dollar terms, with soybean oil again leading the vegoil complex. BOPO has moved above +150. BOGO paused at +537, but the forward curve remains steep, with July values indicated near +589, confirming that the market continues to price feedstock tightness beyond the nearby. Soyoil structure reinforces this message. The Mar Jul carry has narrowed to -0.72 from -0.90. Nearby pressure has eased marginally, but deferred pricing remains elev

The release of IRS proposed 45Z guidance increased risk rather than reduced it, and the reaction in RINs is the clearest evidence. ICE D4 RINs strengthened following the announcement, with nearby values and Dec 2026 trading around 1.40 to 1.41. Traded volume remained limited, only a few hundred lots in Dec 26, but price action matters more than volume here. Instead of weakening as policymakers likely expected, RINs moved higher because the guidance raised compliance uncertai

Energy markets staged only a modest rebound as negotiations with Iran continue, with the next round scheduled for Friday. The recovery lacked depth. Far term volatility remains elevated, with the VIX Far Term Index up nearly 14 percent week over week and more than 25 percent year to date. This confirms that geopolitical risk remains embedded in energy pricing rather than fading . Equity markets reflected this uncertainty, with limited risk appetite. On the Russia front, signa

Energy dominated the session. ICE gasoil suffered a two standard deviation move lower, with the prompt contract down roughly 8 percent on the day. Front month heating oil fell close to 7 percent . The catalyst was geopolitical. The US entered direct negotiations with Iran, sharply reducing near term war risk and triggering an aggressive unwind of energy length. Gasoil flat price dropped more than 60 dollars per metric ton in a single session. The structure of the gasoil cur

Today’s session highlighted how energy, currency, and biofuel markets are sending conflicting signals, with basis and FX doing more work than flat prices. The U.S. winter storm again exposed the fragility of Northeast energy supply. Petroleum fired power generation overtook natural gas for roughly 36 to 48 hours as pipeline congestion limited gas deliverability. This occurred despite gas being nominally available. Natural gas pricing proved unreliable as an indicator. Henry

Middle distillates tightened into expiry while biofuels remained constrained by feedstock pricing and risk management behavior. February U.S. heating oil traded near 2.67 dollars per gallon while February ICE gasoil traded around 703 dollars per metric ton, implying a heating oil premium of roughly 100 dollars per metric ton after unit conversion. ICE gasoil spreads stayed backwardated, with Feb Mar near plus 10 dollars per metric ton and Feb Apr near plus 25 dollars per me