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Understanding the Latest Biofuel Market Trends
The biofuel industry is evolving rapidly, driven by technological advances, shifting regulations, and growing environmental concerns....
Henri Bardon
Sep 304 min read


ICE Gasoil Breaks Lower as Biodiesel Spreads Flare
A sharp 2.5% drop in ICE gasoil today pushed BOGO nearly a full standard deviation higher to +481, underscoring renewed strain on biodiesel economics. The sell-off comes as oil majors and trading houses attempt to manage a temporary surplus of crude while refining margins remain historically high. According to executives from Vitol, Trafigura, and Gunvor, the current oversupply could persist into early 2026 before natural decline rates tighten the market again—leaving traders
Henri Bardon
12 minutes ago2 min read


China Retaliation Deepens Trade Rift as Biodiesel Premiums Slip
Happy Columbus Day, everyone! While Washington appears to signal a thaw in U.S.–China trade rhetoric, Beijing’s retaliatory move under USTR Section 301 will take effect tomorrow and could ripple far beyond container freight. China’s new port fees—starting at $56/t and rising to $157/t by 2028—will apply to any vessel with 25 percent or more U.S. ownership, directly targeting fleets of U.S.-listed owners such as ZIM and Matson. Analysts warn this “wide-net” rule could ensnare
Henri Bardon
24 hours ago3 min read


Markets Rattle as Trump Targets China on Rare Earths
Markets reeled today after Donald Trump’s morning post accused China of “hostile behavior,” threatened a “massive increase” in tariffs,...
Henri Bardon
4 days ago2 min read


Policy Gridlock, Lipid Tightness, and the Biofuel Ceiling
As Washington’s shutdown drags on, the conversation across U.S. agriculture has turned from frustration to self-examination. Soybean...
Henri Bardon
5 days ago3 min read


BOPO Surges as Indonesia Delays B50
The biodiesel complex finally broke out of its muted pattern today as BOPO surged more than 6%, marking the strongest daily move in weeks...
Henri Bardon
6 days ago2 min read


The New World Grain Order: Brazil’s record soybean flows and Europe’s tightening biodiesel spreads reveal a shifting balance where U.S. supply chains are left scrambling under political paralysis and
Gold broke through the $4,000 mark today, a symbol of how far risk sentiment has flipped as Washington’s shutdown drags on. With agencies...
Henri Bardon
Oct 73 min read


Europe’s Paper Frenzy Meets Waste Oil Uncertainty
Late in week 40, European biodiesel markets saw an explosion of paper trading with close to 200,000 tons exchanged across UCOME and FAME...
Henri Bardon
Oct 62 min read


The Oilseed Overhang Grows
The backdrop today is still the U.S. shutdown, which has turned more combative and acrimonious— raising the odds it runs longer than...
Henri Bardon
Oct 32 min read


Flat Price Fallout Hits Biodiesel Hard
The latest EIA report rattled energy markets with a 3% drop in U.S. product demand alongside a build in crude and refined stocks, a clear...
Henri Bardon
Oct 22 min read


Golden Week Weakness, Paper Spreads, and RINs Lift — A Market Waiting for a Trigger
Golden Week holidays began across China and much of Asia, weighing on sentiment as gasoil structure softened despite Russia extending...
Henri Bardon
Oct 12 min read


Shutdown Paralysis Meets Bearish Funds — UCOME Paper Leads the Way
As the US government edges toward a shutdown at midnight, biofuels policy finds itself again in the crosshairs. Darling Ingredients...
Henri Bardon
Sep 303 min read


Gasoil Slips Below $700, UCOME/RME +44 — Shutdown Adds Pressure on RINs
Brent expiry added some pressure across the barrel, with ICE gasoil sliding more than a standard deviation to break below $700. The...
Henri Bardon
Sep 292 min read


BOPO Risks a Repeat Downturn as Soybean Oil Crumbles
Soybean oil’s deteriorating position continues to weigh on BOPO, though a repeat of Q4 2024’s collapse to –200 versus palm oil does look...
Henri Bardon
Sep 263 min read


Argentina Reinstates Export Taxes as Russian Crude Floods the Water, Refining Margins Explode
Argentina has reapplied export taxes on grains and by-products after briefly lifting them upon reaching a $7 billion sales cap, ARCA...
Henri Bardon
Sep 253 min read


Fuel Shortages, River Lows, Shadow Crude: Fragile Balances Define Energy Flows
Gasoil remains firmly backwardated even as China begins to release cargoes ahead of Golden Week. Asia’s spot market saw more tenders and...
Henri Bardon
Sep 242 min read


From Washington to Buenos Aires: Policy Shocks Rock Biofuels: EPA punts RVOs into 2026, Argentina’s peso peg drives tax relief, and BOGO/BOPO spreads sink to multi-year lows
EPA confirmed in a court filing that the reallocation debate over small refinery exemptions will prevent any final RVOs from being issued...
Henri Bardon
Sep 232 min read


EU Boxes Out U.S. SAF but Not China, D4 Premiums Shrink, LCFS Nears $50
Despite a near 4% draw in ARA oil product stocks, ICE gasoil futures slid nearly 2% on the day. Traders point to lingering concerns over...
Henri Bardon
Sep 194 min read


China Quotas Flood Asia, RME Margins Too Wide, U.S. Harvest Choked by Rivers, and D4 RINs Collapse on Fresh SRE Petitions
China has issued 8.4 million tons of refined product export quotas in its third batch this year. This will add more gasoline, jet fuel,...
Henri Bardon
Sep 183 min read


Fed Cuts, EPA Confusion, Asia Refining Shifts — Europe dependency sets HVO rotation
The dollar index plunged below 97 today after the Fed confirmed another two rate cuts before year-end. With DXY breaking down, the move...
Henri Bardon
Sep 173 min read
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