The biofuel industry is evolving rapidly, driven by technological advances, shifting regulations, and growing environmental concerns....

D4 RINs finally stopped their unrelenting climb today, and the timing is difficult to ignore. AFPM has filed a petition in the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit challenging EPA’s final rule setting the 2026 and 2027 RFS volume requirements. The petition is not yet a full legal brief, but it preserves AFPM’s right to seek judicial review. That was enough to make the market pause. Dec26 D4 RINs traded at 2.408, down 0.918% on the day, while Dec27 was shown at 2.441, do

The screen tried to sell peace today, but the biofuel market did not confirm a clean bearish turn. WTI July fell $3.71/bbl to $92.31, Brent August fell $2.62/bbl to $95.19, ICE gasoil June fell $49.75/mt to $1,074/mt, and heating oil July fell 18.30 cents to $3.6651/gal. That was a large energy correction, driven by ceasefire headlines and hope of wider de-escalation in the Middle East. The problem for biodiesel traders is that the structure underneath the move still looks ti

Today’s biodiesel market is no longer trading a simple feedstock story. July ICE gasoil rallied $55.25/mt, or 5.22%, to $1,113.25/mt, while June gasoil rallied $58/mt, or 5.41%, to $1,129.75/mt. WTI July was up $2.49/bbl, or 2.66%, to $96.25/bbl, and Brent July was up $2.20/bbl, or 2.29%, to $98.20/bbl. This matters directly for biodiesel and renewable diesel because the distillate barrel is carrying the market again. The move is not only geopolitical. U.S. crude inventories

The energy yo-yo continued Tuesday. Front-month ICE gasoil fell another $14.50/mt to $1,067/mt while Brent for August settled near $96.16/bbl. Yet despite the weakness in petroleum, soybean oil remains remarkably resilient - this is a solid sign that Energy is not going lower. July CBOT soybean oil closed at 78.41 c/lb, equivalent to $1,729/mt, down only 0.86% on the day after recently reaching its highest level since 2022. U.S. soybean crush margins continue to signal aggre

Monday's market action delivered a clear message: traders are increasingly rejecting the peace dividend narrative. Despite continuing headlines around diplomacy, crude oil rallied sharply with WTI closing above $92/bbl while soybean oil remained resilient and D4 RINs continued their advance. The reason is becoming increasingly obvious. Inventories continue moving lower almost everywhere. U.S. commercial crude inventories have fallen from roughly 465 million barrels in April t

Be so kind if you are enjoying reading my daily free analysis to subscribe to my Substack insuring that my article get delivered directly to your mail inbox https://open.substack.com/pub/globalbiodiesel/p/the-petroleum-market-priced-peace?r=3f53s9&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true The final trading day of the week highlighted an increasingly unusual disconnect between petroleum and biofuels markets. July ICE Gasoil settled at $1,019.50/mt, down $12.50/m

D4 RINs exploded again higher on Thursday with June 2026 D4 futures trading at 2.30, December 2026 at 2.322 and December 2027 at 2.348, extending what has become an almost daily repricing of the US biomass-based diesel mandate. The move comes as traders increasingly realize that the finalized EPA RVOs are structurally tightening the available pool of qualifying feedstocks while renewable diesel and SAF capacity continue to expand across North America. D4 RINs The implications

Energy markets reversed sharply lower today as traders aggressively liquidated geopolitical length on headlines centered around internal peace discussions and diplomatic contacts related to the Iran conflict. The problem for bears is that very little hard evidence has emerged pointing toward an actual operational resolution. There are still no confirmed agreements on sanctions relief, Hormuz shipping security, Iranian export normalization, or verified ceasefire mechanisms. At

Crude and products sold off sharply Tuesday as markets reacted to renewed geopolitical headlines suggesting possible progress toward de-escalation in the Middle East together with another massive release from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve to insure adequate supplies. July Brent settled at $99.10/bbl, down 3.94% on the day, while June WTI fell 2.56% to $94.13/bbl. June ICE gasoil declined 5.02% to $1078.25/mt after trading as high as $1094/mt intraday. Despite the outri

The biofuels market ended the week with a growing disconnect between financial diesel scarcity and physical diesel consumption in the United States. D4 RINs surged to $2.20 for Dec26 and $2.25 for Dec27, extending the move that we highlighted yesterday as compliance economics tightened aggressively against refiners. At current values, the RIN market is no longer a secondary compliance cost. It is becoming a direct transfer of margin away from standalone refining and toward re

ICE Jun gasoil settled today at $1149.75/mt, down another $21.25/mt or 1.81% on the session, while the nearby Jun/Dec backwardation still held near an extraordinary $209.50/mt. Even after the recent correction, prompt diesel structures remain historically tight and continue to signal constrained nearby middle distillate availability. Storm of headlines continue to emanate from Pakistan/Iran and Washington that no one can control. The correction in gasoil has not materially w

US crude and fuel inventories continue to collapse at a pace well beyond 2022 despite outright energy futures undergoing a violent correction. June WTI expired near $107.77/bbl while July WTI settled near $98.35/bbl, leaving a nearly $9.40/bbl premium for prompt physical crude. That type of structure reflects acute prompt scarcity tied directly to collapsing Cushing inventories, which recently rebounded toward 30 million barrels but still remain historically low versus the 60

Today’s correction in crude oil missed the larger macro story developing underneath currency exchanges particularly in Asia. Brent still settled near $110.66/bbl while WTI held above $108.62/bbl despite diplomatic headlines regarding Iran. June ICE gasoil closed at $1,220.25/mt, down only 1.07% on the day, while Jun/Dec backwardation narrowed to $265/mt from $275/mt previously. Heating oil continued strengthening with June HO at $4.1241/gal, up 71.1% over three months, while

Markets started the week with another broad risk-on move across energy and agricultural feedstocks despite hopes last week that the Trump-Xi meeting in China would calm geopolitical tensions. WTI June traded at $106.58/bbl, up $1.16, while Brent July traded at $110.35/bbl, up $1.09. The move came as global observed oil inventories have fallen from roughly 8.2 billion barrels in February toward 7.95 billion barrels by April and May, one of the sharpest seasonal drawdowns since

Energy markets closed the week with increasing concern that the Middle East conflict is entering another phase rather than approaching resolution. Crude rallied sharply again with July Brent settling at $109.20/bbl and June WTI at $105.24/bbl. More importantly, the structure continues to tighten aggressively with WTI Jun/Dec widening to +$21.88/bbl and Brent Jun/Sep at +$8.84. ICE gasoil settled at $1,162.50/mt while Jun/Dec backwardation widened further to +$262.75/mt. Those

Commodity markets spent much of the session correcting lower as energy and agricultural markets paused following recent strength. ICE gasoil settled near $1,191.50/mt, down from recent highs around $1,300/mt, while Singapore 10ppm gasoil traded near $161/bbl and NWE ULSD cargoes corrected toward $1,168/mt. Palm oil also weakened with BMD down 38 ringgit to 4,400. The immediate market narrative centered on softer energy and profit taking, but several broader signals continue p

Energy markets traded lower on Wednesday as traders reduced risk ahead of the Trump-Xi summit and Europe moved deeper into another holiday-shortened trading week. May remains fragmented by public holidays across Europe, reducing liquidity and slowing participation across both energy and biofuels. WTI June fell to $101/bbl while Brent June settled at $106.06/bbl. ICE gasoil June dropped $29.25/mt to $1,178/mt. Despite the correction in flat price, the underlying structure rema

May ICE gasoil expired today, but the market did not normalize afterward. June gasoil settled near $1,223/mt while December closed near $959/mt, leaving the Jun/Dec structure at +$264/mt backwardation. Even after expiry, the market continues pricing acute prompt distillate tightness. Refining economics remain extreme. U.S. screen heat cracks are near $72/bbl while screen 3:2:1 cracks approach $60/bbl with WTI crude only near $102/bbl. Refiners are being rewarded aggressively

ICE gasoil continued to signal a structurally tight middle distillate market on Monday ahead of the May gasoil expiry tomorrow, although the extreme panic pricing seen into the April expiry has moderated significantly. Front month June gasoil settled near $1,199/mt while December traded around $913/mt, leaving the Jun/Dec backwardation at +$286/mt versus the extraordinary +$490/mt seen during the April expiry cycle. Jul/Dec remains highly backwardated near +$205/mt, confirmin