The biofuel industry is evolving rapidly, driven by technological advances, shifting regulations, and growing environmental concerns....

Friday’s energy selloff priced a diplomatic outcome before the conflict produced one. August Brent fell 4.5% to $96.18 per barrel, WTI dropped 3.4% to $89.08, and August ICE gasoil lost $64.25 per metric ton to $1,227.25. The market treated the session as another TACO moment, yet the earlier Versailles MOU offered a credible off-ramp and Washington did not take it. The White House now appears focused on making the conflict painful enough to force Iran back to negotiations, ra

Thursday delivered another violent repricing of prompt energy. August Brent rose 6.3% to $100.03/bbl, WTI gained 5.3% to $91.47/bbl and August ICE gasoil jumped $103.75/mt to $1,282/mt. The diesel heat crack reached $90.78/bbl, while August/December gasoil backwardation widened to about $250/mt and August/March moved above $340/mt. These spreads point to immediate distillate scarcity rather than a uniform rally across the curve. Gold moved in the opposite direction, pushing t

Cross-asset markets are beginning to repeat the pattern seen before Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022. Gold/Brent has fallen from about 75 to 44.06, a 41% decline, while Gold/Wheat has dropped from about 9.3 to 5.90, a 37% decline. At the same time, continuous BOPO has risen to $539/mt, August Brent to $94.02/bbl, August gasoil to $1,224.25/mt and December D4 RINs to $2.382. Based on these commodity patterns, I assign a 75% probability to further military escalation ove

August WTI expired near $85.17/bbl, up 2.3%, with the August/September spread at only $0.89/bbl. Brent traded near $90.72/bbl, while its September/December backwardation widened to $6.79/bbl. Those are firm numbers, yet they still look restrained beside distillates. August ICE gasoil reached $1,209.75/mt, up 26.1% over three months, equivalent to about $162/bbl. August heating oil at $4.129/gal equals $173.42/bbl, leaving the heat crack near $88.25/bbl. Crude moved higher, bu

Every Monday now delivers another contradiction. August WTI expires tomorrow with Cushing inventories near 20 million barrels, yet Aug/Sep backwardation remains close to only $0.85/bbl. Refined products show far greater stress. August gasoil reached $1,199/mt, its premium over December widened to $219/mt, the screen heat crack rebounded to $90.49/bbl and the 3:2:1 crack reached $69.51/bbl. Brent Aug/Dec backwardation widened to $5.68/bbl. West Asian escalation has spread towa

The biofuel industry is at a pivotal crossroads, shaped heavily by the evolving landscape of global policies. As someone deeply involved in this sector, I’ve witnessed firsthand how regulations, incentives, and international agreements can accelerate or hinder biofuel adoption. Understanding these policy frameworks is crucial for businesses aiming to thrive in the renewable energy space. In this post, I’ll break down the key global biofuel market policies, their direct impact

Crude moved higher into the weekend with prices and speculative positioning aligned. Brent reached $87.65/bbl, WTI traded near $82.15/bbl, and Brent Aug/Dec widened to $4.86/bbl. Money managers raised Brent net length by 114,752 contracts to 169,839, driven by 75,996 new longs and 38,756 shorts covered. Gold followed crude higher, confirming broader geopolitical protection ahead of the weekend. Hormuz remains severely impaired, with no VLCC or LNG tanker crossing for a second

European gasoil delivered the strongest signal today. August ICE gasoil settled near $1,171/mt, up 3.7%, while August/December gasoil widened to about $216/mt, up roughly 14% on the day. WTI fell toward $79/bbl, Brent slipped below $85/bbl and gold dropped 1.6% to about $3,987/oz, yet the WTI heating-oil crack surged above $90/bbl, equal to around 114% of WTI. The broader 3:2:1 crack reached almost $70/bbl, or 88% of WTI. Refined-product scarcity has separated from outright c

The 3:2:1 crack reached $67.27/bbl and the heat crack $84.50/bbl against WTI near $79.31/bbl, placing the heat crack above the value of crude itself. Gulf refinery outages, reduced Russian diesel output and restrained Chinese product exports have removed refined fuel from the global market even as crude remains available near $80/bbl. US distillate exports fell by 133,000 bpd and gasoline exports by 59,000 bpd last week, while refinery utilization already stood at 96.2%. One

The US heat crack finished near $89.44 per barrel, one of the largest readings in the chart’s 12-year history. The crack alone now equals 112.1% of WTI at $79.82 per barrel, placing the total heating-oil barrel value near $169.26, or 212.1% of crude. August heating oil rose 20.92 cents per gallon, or 5.47%, to $4.0285 per gallon, while WTI gained 2.15%. ICE August gasoil surged $84 per tonne to $1,166.25, with August/September widening to +$61 and August/December to +$218.75.

Energy prices finally caught up with the renewed escalation around the Strait of Hormuz. August WTI jumped 9.0% to $77.84/bbl, Brent gained 8.9% to $82.76 and ICE gasoil surged $90.50 to $1,098.50/mt. The renewed U.S. naval blockade applies to maritime traffic entering or leaving Iranian ports, rather than every vessel crossing Hormuz, but commercial shipping has already turned defensive. Kpler recorded a 52% week-on-week decline in confirmed crossings from July 10 through Ju

Today’s screen looked contradictory. Middle East risk returned, and gold reacted first, with August futures up $49.20 to $4,131.60/oz. Energy went the other way across the board. Brent Aug fell $2.03 to $75.99, WTI Aug fell $1.93 to $71.59, RBOB Aug lost 8.39 cents to $3.0195/gal and heating oil Aug lost 11.43 cents to $3.5432/gal. July ICE gasoil expiry tomorrow in NWE aggravated the front-end move, with July gasoil down $64.50 to $1,034.25/mt, Jul/Aug backwardation down rou

The market is no longer trading a clean Hormuz reopening. We are going into the weekend with vessels hit, diverted or turning back near the Strait, while energy screens are repricing the risk of another interruption. Brent Sep traded up $4.63 to $78.79, WTI Aug up $3.69 to $74.13, heating oil Aug up 40.52 cents to $3.7069/gal, and ICE gasoil Nov surged $113.25 to $1,086.50/mt. The key number remains the gasoil Nov-Dec spread at $181.25/mt, up $38.75 on the day. That is no lon

D4 RINs pushed higher again today, with Dec26 at 2.585, up 1.16%, and Dec27 at 2.624, up 1.03%. The U.S. market is trading a physical shortfall, not a policy surprise. The 2026 biomass-based diesel requirement is 8.86bn RINs, or 9.07bn once small refinery exemption reallocation is included. May D4 generation was reported near 736mn RINs, against a monthly requirement closer to 915mn. The early-year deficit was already estimated near 1.41bn RINs, while plants ran near 77% of c

Quick note before today’s market recap. This Substack is now one year old. In that time, it has grown into a global daily comment read by traders and market participants across Singapore, Europe, the United States and South America. We are now close to 500 subscribers, and readership is up 91% over the past year. The focus remains a trader’s point of view on biodiesel, renewable diesel, SAF, feedstocks, RINs, LCFS, freight, refinery margins and policy risk. The goal is to con

With U.S. markets closed on July 3, the relevant print is July 2 settlement plus July 3 European screens. The message is clear: BOGO finally broke ahead of the long weekend. This was driven by gasoil strength and soybean oil losing short-term technical momentum. July ICE gasoil settled at $942.75/mt, up $16.25, August at $922.25, up $19.50, and December at $805.75, up $12.25. July/December gasoil backwardation widened to $137/mt, up $4, while August heating oil rallied 5.55 c

Today’s market is less about crude flat price and more about the refined product barrel. WTI is still close to $69.80/bbl, but the ULSD screen crack is near $69.89/bbl, effectively 100% of WTI, while the US 3:2:1 crack is near $62.23/bbl, roughly 89% of WTI. I would not call this a confirmed all-time ratio record without a full historical ratio chart, but it is clearly historic extreme territory. That distinction matters. Crude looks contained, while gasoline and diesel scree

Today’s tape moved through products, not crude. July WTI gained 2.44% to $70.92/b and August Brent gained 1.72% to $73.23/b, while July gasoil rallied $28.75/mt to $910.00/mt and July heating oil rose 13.02 c/gal to $3.3384/gal. The heat crack reached $69.36/b and the 3:2:1 crack reached $61.61/b - remember this is when Brent is $73/brl. Market telling us we have a serious supply problem. These numbers put biodiesel and RD back inside the distillate margin story. July gasoil

Understanding Recent Market Movements The market delivered the opposite of what I expected today. July ICE gasoil fell $19.25/mt to $894.25, while July soybean oil gained 0.49 cents/lb to 71.30. July BOGO widened $30.05/mt to $677.63, August gained $17.78 to $665.44, and December added $10.05 to $693.57. BOGO remains 23% to 32% higher over three months across the forward curve. Today’s move looks like another extension rather than a change in the broader direction. The Import