The biofuel industry is evolving rapidly, driven by technological advances, shifting regulations, and growing environmental concerns. Staying ahead means understanding the latest market dynamics and anticipating future shifts. In this post, I’ll break down the key factors shaping the biofuel sector today and offer insights into what the future holds. Whether you’re optimizing operations or strategizing for growth, these perspectives will help you navigate the complex landscap

The first post-Labor Day session looks like consolidation rather than a change in the energy trend. September ICE gasoil is around $1,434/mt, November Brent near $97/bbl and WTI around $92/bbl, while the heat crack remains close to $99/bbl. Sep/Dec gasoil backwardation is still around $206/mt and Sep/Jan near $250/mt. Hormuz and the Gulf of Aden have not materially improved, while reported attacks have now reached Saudi refining and product infrastructure around Jazan and Abh

Gross margins are the main story at the end of this week. I am using finished biofuel value less local feedstock value as a simple screen before yield loss, hydrogen, utilities, freight and fixed costs. In Northwest Europe, FAME0 near $1,771/mt against Dutch soybean oil at €1,205/mt, equivalent to about $1,400/mt at EUR/USD 1.162, leaves roughly $370/mt. RME near $1,866/mt against Dutch rapeseed oil at €1,245/mt, or about $1,447/mt, leaves around $419/mt. Using the late-Augus

The soybean oil curve is sending a stronger warning than yesterday. October versus January is around -0.55 cents/lb after trading above +2 cents/lb during June, a reversal of roughly 2.5 cents/lb. October BOGO is around +$148/mt after breaking the +$160 area, versus more than +$650/mt earlier this year. On the weekly chart, the market has moved back toward levels seen before the 2025 rally. My expectation is for +$100/mt to be tested next. A break below +$100 puts the previou

The US soybean harvest should be running hard within the next three weeks, and I expect a large share of those beans to move quickly toward processors. July crush already reached a record 221.9 million bushels and December crush margins, despite falling today, remain around $2.39/bushel. Soybean oil itself is giving almost no shortage signal. September is around 71.05 c/lb, December 70.94 and January 70.96. More importantly, the Oct-Jan spread has moved from more than 1.5 cen

September opened with the market moving in the direction we have been expecting. Diesel is now doing the heavy lifting. Front ICE gasoil traded near $1,435/mt, up roughly 6.5%, while September/December backwardation widened to about $208/mt and September/January to roughly $257/mt. US heating oil moved above $4.66/gal, putting the simple heating oil crack near $106/bbl. Crude is higher as Middle East tensions return, but diesel is outperforming crude materially. This is no lo

Today is about the Small Refinery Exemptions. EPA is scheduled to issue decisions at 3 PM ET on 34 petitions from the 2025 compliance year, with reporting pointing to exemptions covering more than 1.8 billion RINs. Set 2 incorporated roughly 991 million RINs of 2025 SREs. An outcome near 1.8 billion therefore represents roughly 809 million additional RINs of compliance relief beyond the assumption already embedded in the rule. Washington is also discussing adding roughly 500

The strongest signal on the screen today is diesel, not crude. September ICE gasoil surged to $1,275.50/mt while January closed near $1,075.75, putting Sep/Jan backwardation back at $199.75/mt. January gasoil now trades almost 16% below September. September heating oil is around $4.35/gal, up more than 7 cents, while WTI sits near $83/bbl and Brent remains below $90. The US heating-oil crack is back close to $100/bbl. This move is occurring despite a stronger dollar and a haw

The most important move today is not the roughly 1% rise in outright soybean oil. It is the collapse in the September/January soyoil spread. September soybean oil is around 68.15 cents/lb against January near 68.64 cents/lb, putting Sep/Jan at -0.49 cents/lb. Earlier this year the spread traded above +3 cents/lb. That represents a reversal of more than 3.5 cents/lb, equivalent to roughly $77/mt. The front of the soybean oil curve has gone from paying a substantial scarcity pr

Europe is beginning to show the diesel stress I have been expecting. Roughly 300,000 barrels of Mexican ULSD have reportedly been identified in recent European purchases. I would not assume this represents a single cargo. At roughly 40,000 metric tons, the volume itself does not alter the European diesel balance, but the origin matters. Europe is reaching as far as Mexico for diesel while Russian availability remains restricted and normal Middle Eastern product flows remain i

Yesterday’s much-advertised sanctions D-Day turned into a nothing burger for immediate energy supply. Washington stopped short of the aggressive secondary-sanctions enforcement the market feared, and crude plus products quickly surrendered some geopolitical premium. The risk has been postponed rather than removed. Secondary sanctions against major financial institutions remain threatened as early as Friday, putting China directly in focus because of its purchases of sanctione

Energy started the week with a substantial correction, concentrated in middle distillates rather than crude. September ICE gasoil fell about 5.2% to $1,244/mt while Brent lost roughly 2.3%. September/December gasoil backwardation dropped about 15% to $124.50/mt and September/January fell about 14% to $160.25/mt. The heating-oil crack fell below $100/bbl for the first time in ten days, trading near $94/bbl. The market has clearly reduced the probability assigned to an immediat

Either EPA has started reading GlobalBiodiesel, or the RIN market finally became loud enough for Washington to hear it. December 2026 D4 RIN futures fell 12.2% Friday to $2.085 after trading near $2.33 earlier in the session, following EPA’s decision to extend the September 1 deadline for 2025 RFS compliance and decide the remaining 2025 small-refinery exemptions by the end of August. There are 34 pending SRE petitions for the 2025 compliance year alone. The response was quic

The most important biofuel signal today was D4 RINs. December 2026 D4s jumped 4.38% to $2.38/RIN, and EPA’s newly released July numbers help show why. Domestic D4 generation fell to 798.05 million RINs from 839.22 million in June, down 4.9%. Renewable diesel accounted for most of the deterioration, with generation falling 7.2% to 532.21 million RINs. Biodiesel slipped 1.9% to 218.26 million. SAF was the exception, rising 10.7% to a record 47.58 million D4 RINs from 29.74 mill

The 4.4 million barrel build in U.S. commercial crude is the wrong number to trade in isolation. The SPR fell another 5.3 million barrels to roughly 293.4 million, more than offsetting the commercial build. Cushing lost another 1.3 million barrels and distillate inventories fell 1.53 million to roughly 105.6 million barrels, about 13% below their five-year seasonal average. Refinery utilization is already around 97.2%. The U.S. refining system is therefore running close to it

Markets were calmer and generally firmer Tuesday, but the important move was inside the distillate curve. September ICE gasoil finished around $1,298/mt while January reached roughly $1,089, leaving Sep/Jan backwardation near +$209/mt. This is a meaningful retreat from recent levels above +$240, but it does not signal an end to physical tightness. Deferred gasoil rose faster than the front rather than prompt gasoil breaking lower. The heating-oil crude crack gives a stronger

Monday gave the clearest confirmation yet of the distillate problem we have been tracking. The U.S. heating-oil crack moved above $102/bbl with September heating oil near $4.44/gal against WTI around $84.30/bbl. ICE September gasoil reached $1,298/mt, up $55/mt or 4.42%, while Sep/Dec backwardation widened to $177.25/mt and Sep/Jan to $217.75/mt. Global diesel flows were already down 26% year on year at 5.3 mb/d, Persian Gulf diesel exports had fallen roughly 80% to 200 kb/d

The clearest new market signal this Friday is HVO Class II paper. Final Week 32 turnover reached 368 kt after Friday added another 99 kt, up 65.9% from 221.8 kt in Week 31 and 4.5 times the 81.9 kt traded in Week 27. Total outright RME, FAME0, UCOME and HVO II turnover reached 668.5 kt, up 22.5% week on week, but the increase was almost entirely concentrated in HVO. HVO II alone added 146.2 kt while the other three products combined lost 23.5 kt. Its share of four-product tur

Energy finally took a breather Thursday. September WTI fell 2.7% to $81.00/bbl, Brent dropped 2.3% to $86.98/bbl and September ICE gasoil declined about 1.2% to roughly $1,235/mt. EIA also reported a 17.4 million barrel increase in U.S. commercial crude inventories. The curves relaxed with September/December gasoil backwardation falling 5.6% to +$160.75/mt and September/January falling 5.3% to +$198/mt. Yet the more important distillate signal moved in the opposite direction.

Today’s EIA report looked bearish on crude and bullish on products, exactly the split traders need to watch. Commercial crude stocks jumped 17.4 million barrels to 424.4 million, while the SPR fell 6.1 million to 298.7 million. Distillate inventories stayed near 107.1 million barrels, roughly 12% below the five-year average, while exports ran near 1.94 million b/d and refinery utilization held around 96.2%. Against this backdrop, the heating-oil crack reached about $98.16/bbl