Gasoil Slips Below $700, UCOME/RME +44 — Shutdown Adds Pressure on RINs

Brent expiry added some pressure across the barrel, with ICE gasoil sliding more than a standard deviation to break below $700. The weakness spilled over to vegoils, keeping bean oil under pressure with a 1% daily loss. December BOGO settled at $385/mt. In the ARAG window, producers were active sellers: RME traded at $1,445.50/mt while UCOME saw strong flows at $1,489.50/mt, following nearly 450 kt of paper volume last week. The UCOME/RME spread widened further to +$44.

Soft oils were mixed. Rapeseed oil in NWE eased while soyoil firmed, keeping its discount around $25/mt to RSO. Paranaguá FOB bids for new-crop soyoil slipped to –$500, even as Brazil pushes soybean planting at a record pace, led by rapid progress in Paraná.

In the U.S., D4 RINs weakened to 97.1 c/gal, pressured by the threat of a government shutdown. Markets remember well how past shutdowns paralyzed the EPA’s ability to issue timely RVOs, approve small refinery waivers, and update pathways. Any repeat of delayed regulatory action risks deepening uncertainty just as producers navigate the transition from the expired BTC to the new 45Z credit framework. The last extended shutdown cycle saw D4 RINs slide sharply and BOGO spreads compress as confidence evaporated — traders are wary of history repeating.

China continues to cement its role as the world’s largest rapeseed importer despite trade spats with Canada. Having scooped up Australian supply and diverted flows from India, it has overtaken all others as the key buyer. Meanwhile, Canadian farmers face mounting inventories. The USDA notes that crush and renewable fuel investments have been delayed or canceled at home, leaving surplus seed and oil heavily dependent on exports to the U.S. and, increasingly, Europe. With 45Z guidance still clouding eligibility, Canadian canola may only receive partial recognition, making EU demand the most logical outlet.