Biodiesel margins tightened further today as vegetable oils continued climbing across all major regions. Soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm-based feedstocks all moved higher, while front-month gasoil again failed to follow. The widening disconnect between rising feedstock costs and stagnant distillate prices pushed biodiesel economics deeper into strain, with ARAG margins reflecting some of the weakest producer conditions seen in recent weeks. The soy complex set the tone early. U.S. export...

Today’s session delivered a stabilizing move rather than a genuine trend reversal. ICE Gasoil rebounded toward $742.75/mt , nearly a one-standard-deviation move higher from yesterday, but the structure did not follow: backwardation weakened again , confirming that the bounce was order-flow driven against a soft fundamental backdrop. The market is increasingly preparing for a large December wave of Chinese gasoil exports , a scenario we highlighted last week and that now looks inevitable....

European markets opened today under the heavy shadow of the November gasoil expiration, and the numbers tell the story clearly. Physical cash gasoil settled at $784.75/mt , while the December futures contract closed at $715/mt , leaving an extraordinary $69.75/mt backwardation between the expiring and prompt month. The Dec/Apr spread narrowed nearly 6% today to +$54.75/mt , but this did little to offset the fact that physical gasoil has surged nearly 24% since the U.S. sanctions package...