EPA’s proposed restoration of 770 million RINs comes with another potential compliance extension, weakening the immediate demand impact of the announcement. The 2025 reporting deadline of October 1, 2026 put compliance 21 months after the start of the obligation year. Automatic extension provisions and separate discretionary deadline changes increasingly dilute the urgency of annual RVOs. The soybean oil carry we have followed over the past six months has repeatedly challenged expectations of...

The latest US heating-oil quote of $4.9433/gallon puts diesel at $207.62/bbl, with the heating-oil/WTI crack at $113.42/bbl. European gasoil is close to the same outright level: October expired with $1,483/tonne on the screen, roughly $199/bbl using 7.45 barrels per tonne, while November subsequently reached $1,465.75/tonne, approximately $197/bbl. October/November backwardation narrowed to around $20/tonne, but November/January widened from $69.50 to $83/tonne, up 19.4%. US November/January...

My call remains the same: diesel spikes into mid-month. October/January ICE gasoil stands at $157.75/tonne backwardation, while November/February still commands $135.25/tonne, showing that the nearby premium extends beyond October’s approaching expiry. Both spreads are below their September peaks, but the curve continues to price a substantial premium for earlier delivery. The nearby heating-oil/WTI crack is $112.19/bbl, calculated from heating oil at $4.8377/gallon and WTI at $90.99....