Fuel Shortages, River Lows, Shadow Crude: Fragile Balances Define Energy Flows
Gasoil remains firmly backwardated even as China begins to release cargoes ahead of Golden Week. Asia’s spot market saw more tenders and private sales, but export quotas still look constrained at roughly 600,000 tons for October, leaving structure supported. Meanwhile, Russia is preparing to ban refined product exports to alleviate domestic shortages even as it accelerates crude shipments. Against this backdrop, ICE gasoil gained $10 to $710, while the ARAG barge market showed premiums now trailing the month’s average on F0 at +654 over ICE gasoil, flat price $1,365. RME stayed in line with the monthly average at +742 ($1,453), while UCOME lagged at +777 ($1,488). The UCOME/RME spread widened to +35.
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