Energy curves remain the clearest signal on direction. The RBOB curve is already in contango , explicitly pricing surplus gasoline and weak demand expectations into early 2026 — Jan/Apr RBOB is trading near –23 c/gal . ICE gasoil remains backwardated , but that structure continues to erode. December expired at +31 , yet Jan/Apr is now near +13.50 , down roughly 21% over the past three months . Gasoline is leading the adjustment while diesel is lagging, a familiar setup. Histo

Europe enters a structurally tighter phase as Berlin prepares to approve the long-delayed RED III transposition, ending months of subdued engagement across physical and paper markets. The expected package — ending double-counting for advanced wastes as we predicted for last 6 months, maintaining the 2027 timetable for phasing out palm by-products, delaying non-EU audit requirements to 2027, excluding aviation and maritime from the obligation, and lifting the GHG reduction t

Front-month ICE gasoil continues to unravel, with the Dec/Apr spread collapsing to +20/mt and even the less expiry-distorted Dec/Jul narrowing to +31.75/mt. The unwind on the GASZ25–GASJ26 structure shows the market retreating sharply from the tightness seen earlier in the autumn, setting a weak tone across the entire biodiesel complex. In Northwest Europe, ARAG barge trading was decent today, but all flat-price indications settled below their respective monthly averages. The

ICE gasoil extended its extraordinary reversal today with Dec/Apr collapsing again to +29.75, now almost 70% lower than the +95 peak only two weeks ago. Moves of this kind simply do not occur without a major macro shift. There has been no surge in stocks, no sudden collapse in demand, and no supply wave to justify this . The curve is stripping out the wartime geopolitical premium, and doing so at remarkable speed. The confirmation comes from FX, with USD/RUB strengthening to

Gasoil finally asserted itself today, rallying close to 3% and pulling BOGO sharply lower as biodiesel values simply could not keep pace with the surge in distillates. The most striking feature of the day was soybean oil’s complete lack of participation. Bean oil ended essentially unchanged even as gasoil surged, reinforcing the December pattern: energy remains tight and occasionally explosive, while vegoils stay fundamentally heavy. BOPO continues drifting higher — now well

Backwardation snapped back into ICE gasoil today with Dec/Apr blowing out to +30.75 and Dec/Jul trading near +43.50, almost up two standard deviations on the front of the curve . Yet Northwest Europe biodiesel values stayed impressively stable. In ARAG, FAME 0 RED held a tight 1,294–1,299 $/mt range with the month-to-date at 1,297.33 $/mt, while RME stayed locked in at 1,434–1,439 $/mt and a month-to-date of 1,436.33 $/mt. Premiums versus gasoil widened simply because gasoil

Gasoil weakness continued across the curve today, with spreads slipping again and margins printing close to two-month lows. The market is trading as if something is quietly shifting in the geopolitical backdrop: the steady strengthening of the ruble, with USDRUB now near 77.6 and at its strongest point in a month, remains the cleanest real-time proxy for progress in back-channel Russia negotiations despite the media blackout. The distillate complex is behaving accordingly—Asi

The diesel market finally cracked with ICE gasoil backwardation easing sharply, the Dec/Apr spread retreating from its recent highs and removing one of the key supports under biodiesel flat prices, while the soyoil forward curve slipped further into contango as Z/N widened and bean oil was repriced against abundant South American supply, weak U.S. export inspections, and the continued absence of China demand. The simultaneous weakening of gasoil and palm oil defined the day:

Diesel markets opened December with the same dislocated tone: flat price remains firm while extreme front-end tightness keeps the timespreads distorted. Dec/Apr backwardation has eased materially from November’s blow-off levels but still sits near +47.75, and critically, half of that structure is packed into Dec/Jan, reflecting how concentrated prompt tightness remains and how the market is trading almost entirely on expectations around the high-stakes, all-or-nothing U.S.–Ru

Vegetable oils closed the week firmer, though with different signals across forward curves. Palm oil futures for the 2026 strip climbed back above 1,000, with the front months up $21–24 (+2.0–2.4%) despite remaining 2.5–5% below levels from three months ago. Bean oil followed, with ZLZ5 at 51.8 cents (+1.75%) and about +0.9 to +1.0 cents across the curve. Structure widened slightly, with ZLZ5/ZLH26 at –0.79 and ZLZ5/ZLK26 at –1.08. BOPO eased to roughly +145 but remains more

The short Thanksgiving week delivered a dramatic shift in distillates. The ICE gasoil Dec/Apr backwardation—nearly +$100/mt at its 18 November peak—has collapsed to +$36.25/mt today, a structural break that resets front-end sentiment across diesel, HVO, and SAF. Asian cash markets confirm the same adjustment: Singapore 10ppm gasoil diffs slipped again to +$1.90/bbl , refining margins softened to $23/bbl , and traders are weighing diversions eastward as freight costs climb.

Europe opened the week with clear downward pressure as front-month ICE gasoil fell to 683.13, taking roughly 10% out of the backwardation down the curve. With the diesel risk premium collapsing on growing confidence in a Ukraine peace framework, biodiesel flat prices in ARAG adjusted lower. FAME 0 traded around 1,290/mt, RME around 1,465/mt, and UCOME close to 1,530/mt. HVO Class 2 eased toward 2,450/mt while SAF held in the 2,820–2,860/mt range. The physical barge market re

Political Noise and Market Dynamics Week 48 opens with the biodiesel market dominated by political noise and macro uncertainty rather than fundamentals. Last week, a Reuters leak hinted that the EPA might delay or dilute its June proposal to reduce incentives for imported biofuels. Although the EPA responded with an unusually forceful rebuttal—calling the report misleading and insisting nothing has changed—its defensive tone only reinforced traders’ suspicions that internal d

BOPO fell another 7% today as bean oil extended its November slide, with funds unwinding length ahead of tomorrow’s CME bean oil options expiry, where a large sheet of out-of-the-money positions will evaporate. January atm volatility remains quiet in the low 30s, while March 2025 otm call options continue flashing stress with implied vols near 118% on the wings — the mid-curve remains the fragile part of the structure. Palm oil softened further as Malaysia’s 1–20 November exp

Biodiesel flat prices weakened across Europe today, extending a softening trend despite broadly supportive macro conditions. FAME 0 traded around $1,320–1,325/mt flat price, RME around $1,505–1,515/mt, and UCOME around $1,540–1,550/mt, all weaker than earlier in the week as buyers remained cautious and liquidity thinned except for UCOME. HVO Class II held at a towering $2,471/mt flat price, maintaining a premium of $900–1,150/mt over conventional biodiesel grades and undersc

The defining feature of today’s session was the violent extension of extreme backwardation in ICE gasoil , with the Dec/Apr spread blowing through +100/mt for the first time in years. As anticipated yesterday, such an unsustainably tight structure was bound to trigger a snapback in flat prices — and it did so with force. Gasoil rebounded above $785/mt , pulling the entire distillate complex higher and resetting biodiesel price relationships across the board. The result was i

Biodiesel margins tightened further today as vegetable oils continued climbing across all major regions. Soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm-based feedstocks all moved higher, while front-month gasoil again failed to follow. The widening disconnect between rising feedstock costs and stagnant distillate prices pushed biodiesel economics deeper into strain, with ARAG margins reflecting some of the weakest producer conditions seen in recent weeks. The soy complex set the tone ea

Today’s session delivered a stabilizing move rather than a genuine trend reversal. ICE Gasoil rebounded toward $742.75/mt , nearly a one-standard-deviation move higher from yesterday, but the structure did not follow: backwardation weakened again , confirming that the bounce was order-flow driven against a soft fundamental backdrop. The market is increasingly preparing for a large December wave of Chinese gasoil exports , a scenario we highlighted last week and that now looks

European markets opened today under the heavy shadow of the November gasoil expiration, and the numbers tell the story clearly. Physical cash gasoil settled at $784.75/mt , while the December futures contract closed at $715/mt , leaving an extraordinary $69.75/mt backwardation between the expiring and prompt month. The Dec/Apr spread narrowed nearly 6% today to +$54.75/mt , but this did little to offset the fact that physical gasoil has surged nearly 24% since the U.S. san

The striking feature in markets today is the continued structural deterioration in soybean oil forward spreads. The Dec/May and Dec/Jul carries are now widening again, with the one-year structure approaching levels that imply +900% to +1000% widening over the last three months . The market is sending a clear signal: Chinese buying of U.S. soybeans is deteriorating rapidly, the policy backdrop remains hostile , and FOB premiums in Brazil for new-crop soybean oil (now near –700