U.S. biodiesel margins have sharply repriced higher, with the front-month screen crush now at 1.05 $/gal versus 0.84 $/gal previously, a gain of 0.21 $/gal or 25% in a few sessions. Heating oil is leading, with HOJ26 trading at 4.2650, up 0.2090 or 5.15% on the day. At the same time, D4 RINs are trading at 1.625 $/RIN, which translates into about 2.44 $/gal of support for biodiesel on a 1.5 RIN basis. Margins are now supported by both the petroleum leg and the credit leg, wit

The market opened the week with a sharp divergence between paper and physical, but the underlying driver remains unchanged. Physical distillate markets continue to tighten while futures markets are liquidating on macro and positioning pressure. This is not a shift in fundamentals. It is a repricing of risk ahead of policy and geopolitical outcomes. Singapore remains the clearest signal for the global system. 10ppm diesel is trading at $240.99/bbl with cash differentials at

Energy markets continue to price extreme tightness across the curve. Apr/Dec ICE gasoil backwardation is now approaching +500/mt , confirming that the system is not only short prompt barrels but structurally tight forward. In the physical market, Asian 10ppm diesel cash differentials are near $43/bl with outright values around $220/bl , while refining margins are holding close to $60 to $65/bl. Naphtha cracks are above $400/mt with front spreads near $120/mt backwardation. Ac

BOGO has repriced sharply. Prompt structure has moved from above 400 to around 323, a drop of roughly 80 to 100 points, or more than 20 percent . July sits near 529 and Q4 around 556, leaving the front to Q3 spread near -200. This flattening shows that the premium for prompt barrels has eroded materially. Calendar spreads confirm the same move. May/Jul soybean oil is now +0.16 after trading near +0.25 to +0.26 three months ago, a 36 percent compression. At the lows earlier t

Several developments today point in the same direction. The global distillate system is tightening rapidly and the stress is now visible across physical flows , futures structures, and policy responses. The most consequential development remains the Strait of Hormuz. Roughly 20 million barrels per day of crude and refined products normally move through this corridor, representing close to 20 percent of global petroleum trade. Recent tanker tracking data show how dramatic the

Energy markets continue to show a widening divergence between petroleum distillates and vegetable oil feedstocks. Diesel markets remain structurally tight while soybean oil markets increasingly signal oversupply. This contrast is becoming one of the defining features of the current biofuels market. The distillate complex continues to display a crisis structure. ICE gasoil backwardation between April and July remains near $259 per metric ton while the April to December spread

Biofuel markets are again moving toward the center of the global energy discussion, but one of the most important developments today is that fertilizer is now entering the same risk equation. As crude trades above $100 and distillate markets tighten, policymakers are no longer reacting only to fuel. They are starting to react to the agricultural input chain as well. Gasoil Apr/Jul backwardation resumed its ascent now that Mar expired and it is telling us that this crisis is

Energy markets continue to reprice geopolitical risk as security in the Strait of Hormuz deteriorates. Reports circulated that three different classes of vessels including container ships, bulk carriers and tankers were attacked while transiting the strait, signaling that the disruption risk extends beyond crude cargoes to the entire maritime logistics system. Later reports indicated that Iran granted permission for Indian tankers to pass through the strait, suggesting that

Reports today that three different classes of ships were attacked transiting the Strait, container vessels, bulk carriers and tankers, immediately caught the attention of energy traders because the pattern does not appear random. When attacks touch all three segments of maritime trade it sends a signal beyond crude oil alone. It speaks to the vulnerability of the broader logistics system that moves energy, commodities and manufactured goods through one of the world’s most imp

WASDE day arrived with little consequence for the vegetable oil complex. The USDA report left the soybean balance sheet largely unchanged and therefore gave biodiesel traders little new information to process. U.S. soybean production remains near 4.26 billion bushels, equivalent to roughly 116 million metric tons. U.S. crush was adjusted slightly higher to 2.575 billion bushels, about 70 million metric tons, while ending stocks remain near 350 million bushels, roughly 9.5 mil

The global distillate system remains under acute pressure as the war involving Iran continues to disrupt crude flows and tanker movements across the Middle East. Brent crude rallied again with the front spread strengthening to roughly 11 dollars per barrel, reinforcing a deeply backwardated structure that signals immediate physical scarcity. ICE gasoil continues to show one of the tightest prompt structures in the complex with the Mar–Jul spread still near +363 dollars per me

European energy markets moved into outright panic today as ICE gasoil surged back above the $1100 per metric ton threshold. The front month contract settled near $1109 per ton, up more than $112 on the session. The rally extended across the forward curve with May gasoil near $1034 per ton and July around $806.5 per ton. The structure of the curve now reflects extreme prompt scarcity . The March to Jul backwardation exploded to roughly $303 per ton, a move that clearly signal

Energy markets moved further into stress on Tuesday as diesel shortages intensified and the forward structure across distillates tightened aggressively. ICE gasoil backwardation surged again with the Mar26 Jul26 spread moving to roughly +211.75. The structure has moved vertically during the past two months and the spread chart shows a steep spike through February into early March, confirming a market scrambling for prompt barrels. The strength in diesel immediately translated

Energy markets dominated everything today as ICE gasoil surged through $1000/mt. The forward curve tightened violently with Mar/Jul backwardation expanding to +191.25/mt from +115.50 yesterday. A move of $76/mt in a single session signals severe prompt distillate scarcity and highlights how fragile Europe’s diesel balance remains. The trigger sits in the Middle East shipping disruption. Closure of the Strait of Hormuz and heightened military risk across Gulf routes has inter

Two wars are ongoing maybe 3 if you count Lebanon and yet cross asset signals remain uneven. Front end equity volatility stayed subdued while longer dated volatility moved higher, signaling regime uncertainty rather than immediate financial stress. USD RUB remained relatively calm near 77, which suggests FX markets are not pricing imminent escalation in Ukraine despite the parallel conflict in the Middle East. Energy markets, however, are clearly pricing risk. ICE gasoil Mar

EPA is advancing the 2026 and 2027 Renewable Volume Obligations at political speed. A working midpoint near 7.5 billion physical gallons of biomass based diesel for 2026 translates into roughly 28.4 million cubic meters. Applying a blended density of 0.835 metric tons per cubic meter, assuming an even split between renewable diesel and FAME biodiesel, yields approximately 23.7 million metric tons. That is the scale. Nearly 24 million metric tons of BBD equivalent is not a com

EPA confirmed it is sending new biofuel blending mandates to the White House with finalization expected by the end of March. At the same time, Washington is reviewing a shift back to gallon based RVOs and the potential removal of the 50 percent reduction in RIN generation for foreign producers. On paper, both changes are bearish RINs. Gallon mandates reduce compliance flexibility. Restoring full RIN eligibility for imports increases potential qualifying gallon supply. Yet D4

ARAG window liquidity remained thin. RME traded at 1,387 per metric ton and FAME0 at 1,337 per metric ton. UCOME did not trade. HVO Class II printed at 2,570 per metric ton, up 10 on the day, while SAF held near 2,250. The clearing interest remains concentrated in conventional grades, with waste based product largely assessed rather than actively exchanged. European inland logistics have shifted materially. Water at Kaub is near 4 meters and upper Rhine gauges such as Maxau h

The most striking feature in the complex remains BOPO above plus 260. At the end of 2024 the spread traded near minus 200. The reversal has occurred despite more comfortable US soy oil stocks and looser global oilseed balances . This is not a classical shortage driven rally. It is a structural repricing. Palm fundamentals are clearly expanding. Global palm oil production is projected to reach 80.7 million tonnes in 2025/26, up 3 percent year on year, with Indonesia at 46.7 mi

D4 RINs closed near 1.539 with intraday trade between roughly 1.515 and 1.560. At 1.54 per RIN, that represents 1.54 dollars per gallon of compliance value embedded in biodiesel economics. March screen margins have turned marginally positive, while May and July remain negative by roughly 15 to 20 cents per gallon even with D4 above 1.50. Forward economics remain dependent on stronger RIN pricing if EPA clarity is delayed into late summer and into the fourth quarter. Chicago M