Soybean oil futures ended lower Thursday, with Dec CBOT bean oil down 1% to $1,094.6/mt , while ICE gasoil edged up $2.75 to $721.25/mt , tightening the Nov/Dec backwardation to +$19.50/mt and Nov/Apr to +$67.25/mt —both higher on the day by 8.3% and 5.1%. Yet despite this apparent firmness in the forward curve, gasoil remains the weak structural leg of the biodiesel trade. The price strength is almost entirely curve-driven, not demand-led. Industrial diesel offtake remains

After yesterday’s diesel-led distortion, today belonged to refining margins as heat cracks blew through $40/bbl , marking a multi-month high and reinforcing the disconnect between screen profitability and physical diesel demand. The same divergence was evident in Asia, where regional diesel margins breached $26/bbl even as cash premiums softened—a clear sign that refinery cracks are running ahead of consumption. ICE gasoil for Z25 held near $700.75/mt , the curve still backw

Strange tape today as Europe once again traded against fundamentals. ICE gasoil slid to around $709/mt in a nearly one standard deviation move lower despite escalating sanctions rhetoric and tightening language from Brussels. The forward curve remains backwardated but visibly softer, with Nov/Dec narrowing 15% to +$16.75 and Nov/Apr at +$60.25. Cracks should be stronger at this stage of Q4 if supply risk were real, but screens continue to price pessimism rather than shortage.

The market was jolted today as ICE gasoil futures surged sharply, climbing more than 6% in one of the largest single-day moves this quarter. The rally followed coordinated sanction announcements from both the European Union and the United States that expanded the list of Russian entities under SDN restrictions, including Rosneft and Lukoil. These measures go far beyond the partial restrictions introduced in 2022 . The earlier sanctions relied mainly on sectoral limits, price

https://globalbiodiesel.substack.com/p/diesel-rally-collides-with-structural?r=3f53s9

ICE gasoil roared back with a one-day surge of more than 4 percent, easily clearing a one standard deviation move and reversing two weeks of weakness in a single session as EU clears a 19th Russian Sanctions package . The diesel-led rally tightened forward spreads, firmed refining cracks, and triggered mechanical compression across biodiesel and renewable diesel economics. The tone shift was aggressive , but it was entirely energy-led, not driven by any recovery in feedstock

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In the U.S., soybean oil finally broke lower with BOPO dropping nearly 25% to +44 $/mt, down almost 80% over the last three months. This marks the long-anticipated correction as harvest pressure collides with export bottlenecks. Roughly 90,000 soybean-oil call options expire within the next 31 days, most between 53 ¢/lb and 63 ¢/lb strikes, now largely out of the money. With no USDA harvest report due to the shutdown, private estimates suggest soybean harvest is already near

Trump’s latest comments attacking the IMO’s global carbon-tax proposal for shipping added another layer of confusion to an already unsettled market. He called it a “Global Green New Scam Tax on Shipping,” even as his own administration’s Section 301 tariffs continue to raise costs for shipowners and operators by extending duties to shipping-related goods and services. With the China trade war heating up again, the Baltic Clean Tanker Index dropped about 5 percent as charterer

Distillate fundamentals weakened sharply mid-week as ICE gasoil fell again to $636/t, and the Fujairah Energy Data Committee reported a 9% surge in total oil-product stocks to 17.81 million bbl, led by a substantial build in middle distillates. The increase reflects continued gasoil weakness and subdued regional demand , with storage hubs now absorbing excess cargoes as cracks soften. The front-month heat crack remains near $32.9/bbl —well below summer highs—highlighting som

A sharp 2.5% drop in ICE gasoil today pushed BOGO nearly a full standard deviation higher to +481, underscoring renewed strain on biodiesel economics. The sell-off comes as oil majors and trading houses attempt to manage a temporary surplus of crude while refining margins remain historically high. According to executives from Vitol, Trafigura, and Gunvor, the current oversupply could persist into early 2026 before natural decline rates tighten the market again—leaving traders

Happy Columbus Day, everyone! While Washington appears to signal a thaw in U.S.–China trade rhetoric, Beijing’s retaliatory move under USTR Section 301 will take effect tomorrow and could ripple far beyond container freight. China’s new port fees—starting at $56/t and rising to $157/t by 2028—will apply to any vessel with 25 percent or more U.S. ownership, directly targeting fleets of U.S.-listed owners such as ZIM and Matson. Analysts warn this “wide-net” rule could ensnare

Markets reeled today after Donald Trump’s morning post accused China of “hostile behavior,” threatened a “massive increase” in tariffs,...

As Washington’s shutdown drags on, the conversation across U.S. agriculture has turned from frustration to self-examination. Soybean...

The biodiesel complex finally broke out of its muted pattern today as BOPO surged more than 6%, marking the strongest daily move in weeks...

Gold broke through the $4,000 mark today, a symbol of how far risk sentiment has flipped as Washington’s shutdown drags on. With agencies...

Late in week 40, European biodiesel markets saw an explosion of paper trading with close to 200,000 tons exchanged across UCOME and FAME...

The backdrop today is still the U.S. shutdown, which has turned more combative and acrimonious— raising the odds it runs longer than...

The latest EIA report rattled energy markets with a 3% drop in U.S. product demand alongside a build in crude and refined stocks, a clear...

Golden Week holidays began across China and much of Asia, weighing on sentiment as gasoil structure softened despite Russia extending...