Policy Optionality Dominates While Feedstocks Stay Abundant
Markets continue to price policy optionality while physical signals point to abundance. D4 RINs trade near 1.38 for December 2026. At that level, biodiesel economics improved sharply. The US biodiesel screen margin sits near minus 0.05 dollars per gallon before any 45Z value, versus margins near minus 0.40 dollars per gallon during late 2025. This shift explains why operating rates stabilized rather than falling further.
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