Geopolitics Lifts Energy, Feedstocks Push Back
- Henri Bardon
- Jan 5
- 4 min read
The year starts with geopolitics tightening rather than easing. USD RUB trades back above 80 and sits near 80.8 after dipping into the high 79s late last week. This level has historically aligned with rising geopolitical risk, not progress on Ukraine. Gold confirms the signal, trading near 4,453 per ounce, close to a one standard deviation move on the day. Energy markets are reacting accordingly. Heating oil futures are higher across the curve, with front months up around 2 percent, and heat crack margins have rebounded into the low 30s after spending much of Q4 below 25. This supports distillate flat price even as macro risk rises.
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