Biodiesel Markets Reprice Risk as Energy Signals a Peace Premium Unwind: ICE gasoil structure and USD RUB imply a 60 to 65 percent probability of a Ukraine deal, shifting biodiesel flat price risk

Global biodiesel markets ended the session with energy structure sending the clearest signal of the day. Jan Apr ICE gasoil backwardation slipped again to 12.50, down roughly 9 percent on the day and now a fraction of early November levels. This move is not about refinery outages or seasonal tightness. It reflects geopolitics. Markets are pricing a Ukraine outcome with a meaningful chance of de escalation. Based on USD RUB trading near 78, FX markets imply a 60 to 65 percent probability of a ceasefire or negotiated framework within the next 6 to 12 months. Energy structure is reacting to this probability well ahead of headlines.

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