The Screen Is Trading Peace, But the Ships Are Not Moving Yet
Energy gave back a large part of the war premium today as the market started to price a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, but the screen is now moving faster than the ships. WTI July fell to $75.79, down $4.96, while Brent August fell to $78.98, down $4.19. ICE gasoil followed, with July last around $893.50/MT, down $40.25 on the day. The technical break is now clear. July gasoil has traded below both its 20-day WDMA at $1,125/MT and its 50-day WDMA at $944.96/MT. The next major moving-average support sits much lower, near the 100-day WDMA at $792.50/MT. That raises the risk of another liquidation leg if the market continues to trade the ceasefire headline.
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