Futures Sell the Signature, Physical Markets Still Wait
Energy futures sold off again as the market treated the signed U.S.-Iran memorandum as a de-risking event, but the physical data does not confirm a full reset. WTI July fell $2.81 to $73.98, Brent July fell $2.44 to $77.11, and ICE gasoil July fell $48 to $858. Gasoil July/September remains +$24 and July/December remains +$67, so the curve is still backwardated after a 5.30% drop in the front month. Verified Hormuz crossings were only 6 on June 17, after 10 on June 15 and 14 on June 16. Persian Gulf crude and condensate transits are still near 4 mbd in June versus roughly 15 to 16 mbd in January and February. The screen priced the signature. The ships have not confirmed normality. Futures are definitely trading ahead of themselves.
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