NOPA Tightens Supply as Diesel Export Restrictions Could Raise Refiners’ RVO Exposure
US biodiesel had two developments to digest today: a smaller-than-expected NOPA crush and Washington’s discussion of restricting fuel exports. August crush came in at 205.456 million bushels, 6.094 million below the 211.550 million trade estimate, although still up 8.2% year on year. Soybean-oil stocks were 1.201 billion lb, 56 million below expectations and down 4.4% from a year earlier. Crushing fewer beans than expected also means producing less oil: using an illustrative yield of 11.5 lb per bushel, the crush shortfall would represent approximately 70 million lb less oil than anticipated. That could explain the 56-million-lb inventory miss without requiring stronger-than-expected demand. The report points to a smaller feedstock cushion for biodiesel producers, but does not by itself show that biodiesel consumption exceeded expectations.
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