Soyoil Is Telling Us That EPA Soft Deadlines Are Weakening the RVO
The most disturbing number today is not in the USDA report. October/January soybean oil has fallen to a -0.80 c/lb carry, the deepest carry on our 16-month chart, after trading near +1.60 c/lb backwardation in late May. That is a 2.40 c/lb, or roughly $53/mt, reversal in little more than three months. Front BOGO has simultaneously collapsed to about +$51/mt, while December BOGO fell another 16% to roughly +$221/mt. USDA gave agriculture little reason to fear a shortage. World 2026/27 corn ending stocks came in at 272.10 MMT versus 274.66 MMT in August, soybeans at 124.02 MMT versus 124.21 MMT, and wheat at 276.29 MMT versus 273.25 MMT. U.S. soybean production increased to 123.42 MMT from 122.99 MMT, with ending stocks at 8.44 MMT. The soybean oil curve is therefore sending the stronger signal. Prompt vegoil is plentiful, and the market is questioning when biofuel demand needs to appear.
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