UCOME Tightens, HVO Should Collapse, SAF Tempts Asia: Diesel Determines Everything
European markets opened today under the heavy shadow of the November gasoil expiration, and the numbers tell the story clearly. Physical cash gasoil settled at $784.75/mt, while the December futures contract closed at $715/mt, leaving an extraordinary $69.75/mt backwardation between the expiring and prompt month. The Dec/Apr spread narrowed nearly 6% today to +$54.75/mt, but this did little to offset the fact that physical gasoil has surged nearly 24% since the U.S. sanctions package against Russia was introduced in mid-October. Today marked the first meaningful profit-taking after a three-week vertical rally.
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