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+115 ICE Backwardation, 63% Gasoil Vol, and a 40 Dollar RME UCOME Spread

Mar 2
3 min read

Two wars are ongoing maybe 3 if you count Lebanon and yet cross asset signals remain uneven. Front end equity volatility stayed subdued while longer dated volatility moved higher, signaling regime uncertainty rather than immediate financial stress. USD RUB remained relatively calm near 77, which suggests FX markets are not pricing imminent escalation in Ukraine despite the parallel conflict in the Middle East. Energy markets, however, are clearly pricing risk.

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