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Thoughts on Biojet or Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) roadmap

Functional Biojet production installed capacity is currently about 500,000 Metric Tons yet we are aiming to increase this 10X by 2027. This seems unrealistic in the current context of agressive increases in mandates for other transportation sector using the same technology (Hydro Treated Vegetable Oil - HVO or RD). Spot pricing for SAF in Northwest Europe is $3251 per Metric Tons while for non-SAF HVO it is $2200 per MT and for regular Biodiesel ~1600 per MT while regular Diesel is $884 per MT. These EIA forecasts ignore realities of pricing in EU with the exception of USA where a Biojet Tax credit is in place that could in addition to RINs ($796 per MT) and the Tax credit of $552 per MT assist in pushing the use of Biojet in the US exclusively. Note that this will still leave a significantly high green premium over traditional A1 jet fuel that airlines will have to bear. The policy intention is that we are going to do this at the same time as increasing global biodiesel/RD for road transport use by 10 Million Metric Tons by 2027. This by my estimate is at least 2X faster that pricing (expect a much higher green premium) and farming production can catch up with the policy. Is there a better way to do this? yes of course. Don't subsidize and make Biofuels in general totally tax and duty free products worldwide to encourage trade and blending.

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