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Soyoil stocks in US up 68% since Oct23 so BOGO drops another 7%


Soyoil futures trading correspondingly well below 20 DWMA with little hope in sight although premiums in South America are stronger. Soyoil futures are definitely doing all the work as crushers according to NOPA crushed last month 196 Mil bushels +5.7% y-o-y. What is most puzzling is that soy crush margins are in contango paying as much as much as $15/mt more July than currently - seems US crushers in hurry to crush! It is clear that carbon intensity issues are in the forefront of Renewable Diesel producers as LCFS credit pricing dropping to $63/mt. BOGO dropped 7% today to $174/mt while FAME traded in Northwest Europe at nearly +378/mt, this is bringing us back to > 200 spread. Argentina harvesting still delayed due to wet soil but drier weather incoming for 10 days and harvest particularly north will speed up. Similarly in US, plantings are progressing quite nicely with soybean at 3% well ahead of 1% average. My feeling is that Soyoil weakness not totally over and would not discount that we only see lows in soy until Argentina has at least 50% of its crop harvested.



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