EIA Moves the Diesel Shortage Into 2027
The biggest change today comes from EIA, which has moved U.S. distillate tightness well beyond this autumn. Its September 9 STEO forecasts inventories below 100 million barrels during September, below the 2021-2025 five-year low through year-end and through most of 2027. EIA raised its 2026 distillate crack forecast from $1.30 to $1.57/gal, up 20.8%, and its 2027 forecast from $0.97 to $1.25/gal, up 28.5%. Retail diesel forecasts rose from $4.85 to $5.07/gal for 2026 and from $4.07 to $4.40 for 2027. The ICE curve supports the same message. September gasoil expired $84.50/mt over October, yet October/December is around +$155, October/January +$207 and October/April +$329 reflecting our worst fears. October gasoil near $1,485/mt and October heating oil around $5.055/gal against WTI near $102 put the heat crack now close to $110/bbl. September expired, but the shortage premium moved directly into the new front month. Better fasten your seatbelts.
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