Soybean Oil Breakout, Gasoil Fragile, Credits Firm

Into Feb gasoil expiry, the technical divergence between feedstock and distillate is becoming clearer.

ICE gasoil March trades around 693 to 695. The 200 day moving average sits near 734, well above current price. The 50 day is near 678 and the 20 day near 675. Price holds above short term averages but remains below the long term average. Structurally, gasoil has not yet reversed its broader downtrend.

Gasoil

Soybean oil has turned constructive. The 20 day moving average near 51.76 has crossed above the 50 day at 51.32 and the 200 day at 50.03. Price at 57.05 sits above all three. That is a clean bullish alignment. The 55 to 58 cents per pound zone now acts as support.

Soyoil

China is reported to be increasing purchases of U.S. soybeans, while USDA projects Brazil’s crop at 180 million metric tons and global soybean ending stocks at 125.5 million tons. However, export pace out of the U.S. Gulf has been hampered by low water conditions on river systems feeding terminals. Slower barge movement constrains loadings.

When exports slow, beans remain more readily available inland. That typically translates into softer basis and easier procurement for domestic crushers. Easier and cheaper beans support crush economics and can increase soy oil output. Even with a bullish chart, physical bean availability tempers the risk of a runaway feedstock squeeze.

Policy credits remain a critical pillar. D4 RINs trade at 1.476 in Dec26 with 338 lots transacted. That level materially enhances blending economics relative to last year’s averages. On the West Coast, California LCFS credits print above 70 USD per ton CO2 on a five day rolling basis, up from roughly 50 in December and from a June low near 42. The combination of D4 at 1.476 and LCFS above 70 significantly improves netbacks for renewable diesel and biodiesel delivered into California, particularly in a context of lighter import flows.

LCFS

In ARAG, RME gross margins remain near 105 dollars per metric ton. That is still positive, though narrower than several weeks ago as Rhine river conditions improved and barge freight trended lower. The margin is no longer inflated by logistics stress.

The market is balancing three forces. Gasoil remains technically damaged and sensitive to geopolitical headlines, with USD/RUB at 77.09 serving as the key risk proxy for Gasoil in Europe. Soybean oil has turned technically bullish. Slower Gulf export logistics ease bean availability and support crush. Meanwhile, elevated D4 and LCFS credits continue to anchor U.S. biofuel economics even as flat price spreads compress.