BOGO Accelerates, RINs Isolate the U.S., Margins Stay Negative
Macro tone stayed firm as Iran discussions continued this week, yet structure inside the barrel weakened. Brent Apr Dec backwardation widened to about 3 dollars per barrel, up from near flat at the start of the year. This move reflects geopolitical risk pricing. Downstream markets did not confirm. ICE gasoil Feb Jul backwardation compressed to about 30 dollars per metric ton, down from more than 60 dollars per ton at the end of January. Heating oil curves flattened at the same time. Risk remains concentrated in crude rather than refined products.
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