Crush margin are not lying they are in a steep contango as crush exceeds demand for 2024 through Nov24. NOPA to released today will probably exceed 193 mil Bushels in accordance with Reuters poll. The USDA report last friday showed world wide soybean carry out for 2023/24 at 114.6 Million MT which is 3 Mil MT higher than last month's report. We are are stuck at 30% stock to use ratio globally on Soybeans as Argentina crop gets bigger now assessed at 50 mil MT while Brazil assessed at 157 mil mt. We note that not only Soybean oil is weak but also waste oil prices. BOGO is now in a steep contango with nearby below +300 with July showing +340 over ICE gasoil. Market is Northwest Europe reflecting this very well with FAME premium at +300 in the spot market. Widening gross margin in winter Biodiesel RME at $276/mt hide the fact that RSO market in Europe is in contango as demand is simply not great because of lingering high energy + labor prices that are narrowing margins. Despite high heating oil crack margin and announcements that gasoil export quotas from
China increasing because of $ requirements, gasoil clearly is in downtrend.