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BOGO Breakout Defies Gasoil Fundamentals

Jun 27, 2025
2 min read

Despite signs of a global supply crunch in middle distillates, ICE gasoil futures continue to underperform, pushing the BOGO spread to +490. In the past week, gasoil inventories in the ARA hub dropped by 10%, while Singapore's middle distillate stocks fell 8%, equivalent to a 900,000-barrel draw. These sharp weekly reductions point to increasing tightness in the physical market. Yet the futures curve remains sluggish, leading to an unusual divergence that is boosting biodiesel margins and drawing speculative attention.

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