No Resolution on Supply Flows as Back-End Gasoil Spreads Extend the Distillate Deficit and Support Biofuels
Distillate structure continues to tighten with a clear shift toward the back of the curve. ICE gasoil May/Dec is holding around +370/mt, while Jul/Dec strengthened further and is now leading the curve at +210. The relative move in Jul–Dec versus May–Dec confirms that the market is extending the duration of the deficit into summer and Q4. This comes as negotiations around the Strait remain unresolved, with probabilities shifting toward disruption persisting into June rather than resolving in May.
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