Diesel Refining Margin Near $109/Brl Meet Weaker Soyoil and Higher Financing Costs
Thursday’s intraday screens showed November Brent at $107.24/bbl, up $4.16, and November WTI at $95.64, up $3.48. The separate diesel-crack chart stood at $108.97/bbl, calculated from ULSD at $4.8696/gal multiplied by 42, less WTI at $95.55/bbl. These are snapshots at different times, rather than a synchronised closing assessment. There is also numerical support for a strong refining-quarter outlook: Marathon Petroleum’s blended benchmark crack averaged $46.17/bbl in July–August, versus $33.54 in Q2, a 37.7% increase. September was still blank in its published table, so this supports expectations of strong Q3 results without establishing record earnings. A product crack is also not a refinery’s net profit. On export policy, the September 23–24 reporting supplied points to voluntary restraints, while the White House denied the reported 90-day blanket ban. My reading is that traders should assess restrictions as a scenario: fewer US exports could weaken domestic diesel prices relative to overseas markets, but the scale cannot be quantified without an agreed volume or policy text. Any concrete measures by the admin on the diesel ban will cause a massive panic to book diesel freight ahead of the ban.
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