Diesel Prices a Winter Squeeze. Vegetable Oils Prices Ample Supplies
December/April gasoil is the most disturbing chart today. December at $1,333/mt against April at $1,142 puts backwardation at $191/mt, widening $15.25 on the session as December gained $27.25 and April rose $12. October/January also stands around +$190.50/mt. December fuel commands 16.7% more than April, extending the strength well beyond October delivery. Meanwhile, November Brent traded around $99.15/bbl, down $1.19, as October gasoil gained approximately $26/mt. That divergence keeps me bullish diesel and skeptical of pricing physical relief ahead of the September 24 China summit. My personal expectation is for limited initial results; with winter gasoil still commanding $191/mt over April, I want quantified commitments, shipment dates and additional supply before changing that view.
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