Bean oil weakness accelerated as there are no real support left after breaking 50dma and 200dma closing at 47 c/lbs. My feeling is that we could end up in the 30's before long depending on energy situation on Gasoil. Gasoil chart looks like dead-man walking... truly a straight line but 50dma has now broken 200dma alerting us to further imminent weakness in energy. FAME (summer biodiesel) traded as low as +240 over Gasoil with a mere +27 backawardation to Q1 in premium while flat price it is showing +55. However since RME (winter biodiesel made from RSO) is trading at only $40 premium to FAME, and is showing a contango in both premium and flat price, it is fair to say that we will be looking at a contango soon in FAME. Only UCOME (Used Cooking Oil) is mysteriously rising to a premium of nearly $400/mt over FAME for a flat price exceeding $1300/mt. There is simply no justification for such premium and/or backwardation in UCOME when pipeline to Europe from China has operated at nearly 400,000MT per month of combined UCOME/UCO.
Kommentare