RINs Signal Policy Stress as 45Z Reopens Risk and Feedstock Curves Continue to Soften
The release of IRS proposed 45Z guidance increased risk rather than reduced it, and the reaction in RINs is the clearest evidence. ICE D4 RINs strengthened following the announcement, with nearby values and Dec 2026 trading around 1.40 to 1.41. Traded volume remained limited, only a few hundred lots in Dec 26, but price action matters more than volume here. Instead of weakening as policymakers likely expected, RINs moved higher because the guidance raised compliance uncertainty rather than resolving it.
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