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Shutdown Paralysis Meets Bearish Funds — UCOME Paper Leads the Way
As the US government edges toward a shutdown at midnight, biofuels policy finds itself again in the crosshairs. Darling Ingredients...
Henri Bardon
Sep 303 min read
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Gasoil Slips Below $700, UCOME/RME +44 — Shutdown Adds Pressure on RINs
Brent expiry added some pressure across the barrel, with ICE gasoil sliding more than a standard deviation to break below $700. The...
Henri Bardon
Sep 292 min read
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BOPO Risks a Repeat Downturn as Soybean Oil Crumbles
Soybean oil’s deteriorating position continues to weigh on BOPO, though a repeat of Q4 2024’s collapse to –200 versus palm oil does look...
Henri Bardon
Sep 263 min read
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Argentina Reinstates Export Taxes as Russian Crude Floods the Water, Refining Margins Explode
Argentina has reapplied export taxes on grains and by-products after briefly lifting them upon reaching a $7 billion sales cap, ARCA...
Henri Bardon
Sep 253 min read
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Fuel Shortages, River Lows, Shadow Crude: Fragile Balances Define Energy Flows
Gasoil remains firmly backwardated even as China begins to release cargoes ahead of Golden Week. Asia’s spot market saw more tenders and...
Henri Bardon
Sep 242 min read
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From Washington to Buenos Aires: Policy Shocks Rock Biofuels: EPA punts RVOs into 2026, Argentina’s peso peg drives tax relief, and BOGO/BOPO spreads sink to multi-year lows
EPA confirmed in a court filing that the reallocation debate over small refinery exemptions will prevent any final RVOs from being issued...
Henri Bardon
Sep 232 min read
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EU Boxes Out U.S. SAF but Not China, D4 Premiums Shrink, LCFS Nears $50
Despite a near 4% draw in ARA oil product stocks, ICE gasoil futures slid nearly 2% on the day. Traders point to lingering concerns over...
Henri Bardon
Sep 194 min read
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China Quotas Flood Asia, RME Margins Too Wide, U.S. Harvest Choked by Rivers, and D4 RINs Collapse on Fresh SRE Petitions
China has issued 8.4 million tons of refined product export quotas in its third batch this year. This will add more gasoline, jet fuel,...
Henri Bardon
Sep 183 min read
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Fed Cuts, EPA Confusion, Asia Refining Shifts — Europe dependency sets HVO rotation
The dollar index plunged below 97 today after the Fed confirmed another two rate cuts before year-end. With DXY breaking down, the move...
Henri Bardon
Sep 173 min read
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Harvest Insights: Navigating the U.S. Biodiesel Landscape
Current Crop Conditions and Market Dynamics Harvest is now underway in the U.S. The USDA reports that 5% of soybeans have been cut across...
Henri Bardon
Sep 163 min read
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Sustainability at Sea Meets Abundance on Land: WTO Pact, NOPA Crush, Diwali Buying, and U.S. LCFS Momentum
The WTO’s Global Fisheries Agreement came into force today, marking the organisation’s first sustainability-focused deal. The pact bans...
Henri Bardon
Sep 153 min read
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Biodiesel Outlook After WASDE: Plenty of Feedstock, Tougher Demand Ahead
The September WASDE gave little comfort to oilseed markets. U.S. soybean acres were lifted slightly while yields edged down, leaving...
Henri Bardon
Sep 122 min read
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RINs Weak, Gasoil Cracks, and U.S. Trade Flows Under Fire
D4 RINs continue to trade under pressure, slipping below the $1 mark and leaving U.S. biodiesel economics firmly negative. The U.S....
Henri Bardon
Sep 112 min read
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RINs Sink as White House Considers 50% Cut in SRE Reallocation
The main news today is the Reuters report that the White House and EPA are considering a proposed 50% reduction in the reallocation of...
Henri Bardon
Sep 102 min read
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D4s Break, BOGO Crashes, ARAG Wobbles: Biofuels Enter Q4 in Crisis Mode
As the October 14th implementation date for USTR Section 301 shipping regulations nears, the maritime industry braces for a seismic shift...
Henri Bardon
Sep 92 min read
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Biodiesel Squeeze Deepens as Policy Pushes Production, Not Blending
The U.S. biodiesel screen crush widened again to nearly 50 cents per gallon negative, despite soybean oil futures holding above 51 cents...
Henri Bardon
Sep 82 min read
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Zero Soy to China, New Lows in BOPO, and a Tariff Threat at the IMO
China’s retreat from U.S. agriculture is accelerating. After already pivoting away from U.S. soybeans—zero shipments in June and July for...
Henri Bardon
Sep 42 min read
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From Washington to Brussels to Delhi: Biofuels Under Pressure
The market is firmly in reactionary mode as Washington weighs the politically sensitive question of reallocating small refinery...
Henri Bardon
Sep 32 min read
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China’s Record Vegoil Stocks Weigh on Global Biofuels
The most striking development today comes out of China, where soybean and vegetable oil stocks have reached year-highs, with port...
Henri Bardon
Sep 22 min read
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Europe’s FAME Hits Records While U.S. Biofuels Brace for US Crop Deluge
With U.S. markets shut for Labor Day, Europe set the tone today. Window trades saw RME at $745–760/mt , FAME 0 at $690–700/mt (+696 over...
Henri Bardon
Sep 12 min read
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