When Reported Inventories Stop Meaning Available Barrels
Updated: Aug 6
Markets were calmer Wednesday, yet calm reflected headline fatigue rather than lower Middle East risk. Conflicting reports moved between progress on an Iran-Oman framework and Iran postponing the agreement after renewed US threats. Iranian sources tied a Strait of Hormuz reopening to sanctions relief, access to blocked funds, an end to the naval blockade and Iranian authority over inspections and transit charges. Reported fee proposals ranged from 5% to 7% of cargo value from Iran, near 3% from Oman and zero from Washington. Any Iran-Oman arrangement also appears separate from the terms required for normal US-Iran maritime traffic. Yemeni forces also claimed an attack on the Saudi-owned tanker Daisy in the Gulf of Aden, although the vessel reportedly continued toward Djibouti. Traders are now waiting for sustained vessel movements, lower insurance costs, confirmed loading programs and restored refinery runs before accepting diplomatic statements. WTI fell 0.73% to $75.22/bbl and front Brent held near $79.50/bbl, while gold rose $161/oz, or 3.9%, to $4,257/oz and the DXY slipped 0.15% to 99.585. Crude traded the peace narrative. Gold continued to price unresolved financial and geopolitical risk.
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