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unprecedented low water levels for Navigation on both side of the Atlantic: Mississippi & Rhine


Don't think I can remember a situation where both US and Europe waterways were so hampered by low water navigation levels although it is eerely similar to last year. The Rhine river is also now forecasting well below 0.70Meter while Mississippi is showing negative values! The impact of this at harvest time in US is significant as we can see that basis is coming under pressure again this week as grain & oilseeds cannot move out in US which by the way is good for crushers. Equally important, we hear that imported gasoil is stacking up in ARAG and unable to move inland so will probably push nearby backwardation lower like today down $5/mt as only option will be to deliver against ICE Gasoil futures if you can meet specs.. The impact of which is quite critical for European fuel as only other way to move imported diesel inland is by truck. The impact in the US will be mostly felt on grain basis at this time and eventually on futures as farmers will look to move harvested grain and oilseeds. We see already Chicago and river value basis at least 15-20 cents lower.


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