Two Chokepoints, One RIN Test: BOGO Has Nowhere to Hide
European gasoil delivered the strongest signal today. August ICE gasoil settled near $1,171/mt, up 3.7%, while August/December gasoil widened to about $216/mt, up roughly 14% on the day. WTI fell toward $79/bbl, Brent slipped below $85/bbl and gold dropped 1.6% to about $3,987/oz, yet the WTI heating-oil crack surged above $90/bbl, equal to around 114% of WTI. The broader 3:2:1 crack reached almost $70/bbl, or 88% of WTI. Refined-product scarcity has separated from outright crude direction. Iran has instructed the Houthis to prepare to disrupt Bab el-Mandeb if the United States strikes Iranian power infrastructure, with missiles and drones positioned near the Gulf of Aden. The Red Sea now carries about 7% of global energy supplies, while Saudi Arabia routes roughly 70% of its energy exports through Yanbu. With Hormuz already impaired and attacks reaching Omani waters, traders should remain cautious about shorting prompt gasoil or backwardation, even when crude trades lower.
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