We probably looking at the 500Kt to 1.0 Mil MT of additional Biodiesel demand in 2025 from maritime fuel. All vessels greater of 5000dwt regardless of flag of origin will have to abide by the GHG savings rules when they call on any EU/EEA ports. Similar to the aviation mandate that is triggered on Jan1 at the same level and will also require at least 1.1 Mil MT of SAF, a maritime biofuel mandate will be required. The mandate is for 100% of the fuel between EU/EEA ports and 50% if one of the port is non-EU/EEA. UCOME blends of 24-30% are capable of reducing 80-90% of GHG Vs the 92.1% fossil fuel reference. All Ships will have to report their FuelEU maritime plan into the FuelEU database. A ship's ghg compliance will have to be from one pool only and not multiple pools so mass balance is limited. When you add this maritime mandate to the aviation mandate, it will translate into at least 2.0 Mil MT of additional demand in EU next year - mostly UCOME because of the low-blend mandate requirements hence higher neat GHG savings. This is going to put a lot of pressure on UCO pricing unless we see many more LNG and Biomethanol vessels operating.
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