The Great Unwind: The Curve Doesn’t Lie as Diesel Structure Collapses and Soy Oil FreezesGeopolitics move, policy stalls, and biodiesel markets diverge across the Atlantic
ICE gasoil extended its extraordinary reversal today with Dec/Apr collapsing again to +29.75, now almost 70% lower than the +95 peak only two weeks ago. Moves of this kind simply do not occur without a major macro shift. There has been no surge in stocks, no sudden collapse in demand, and no supply wave to justify this. The curve is stripping out the wartime geopolitical premium, and doing so at remarkable speed. The confirmation comes from FX, with USD/RUB strengthening to ~76, a highly unusual move during an active conflict but entirely consistent with markets anticipating progress toward negotiation under the media blackout. The ruble and the gasoil curve are telling the same story: geopolitical de-risking is underway, even if official channels remain silent.
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