Tariff Ripples and Tanker Traffic: Markets Recalibrate Amid New Constraints
ICE gasoil prices dropped by $11/mt today to $630, giving a significant lift to BOGO spreads. With bean oil relatively static, the spike in BOGO reflects the gasoil weakness more than vegetable oil strength. While gasoil's May/September backwardation has softened to +$11.50, the biodiesel paper curve remains tight, with the Q2/Q3 FAME 0 spread still at +$88. Strikingly, that steep backwardation is not echoed in UCOME, which shows a much flatter +$30 curve—suggesting diverging expectations on demand or supply tightness for waste-based versus crop-based biofuels.
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