Spreads Don’t Lie
The jawboning is working, helped by an unusual absence of Iranian headlines during the Tasoua and Ashura holidays on June 24-25. US officials have filled the news vacuum with assurances that Hormuz flows are returning toward normal. August Brent fell 4.68% to $73.47/bbl and August WTI dropped 4.10% to $70.21/bbl. Iran has exported 40 million barrels since June 15, including 20 million on June 19 alone. Yet commercial traffic remains around 25-35 vessels per day versus 80-130 before the war. This is a concentrated release of stranded and stored barrels, not a restoration of normal two-way trade. Iranian officials and negotiators will return to the news cycle starting this weekend, when the assumptions now embedded in flat crude prices will face a more serious test.
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