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Writer's pictureHenri Bardon

Soyoil breaks down taking BOGO down 25%


When journalists don't know why a commodity breaks down, they attribute it to profit taking, since managed funds were mostly short grain and oilseeds, I think this is a new round of shorting. There are 3 reasons for this: 1/still large arrivals of Beans at terminals in Argentina; 2/China trade war -still not taking US beans and 3/US crops looking great. On the Biodiesel front, BOGO retreat from +290 to +216 puts us back where we were at end of June. FAME values in Europe still 2X BOGO at +407 over ICE gasoil. Biodiesel margins generally unchanged. Despite tight distillate stocks worldwide and lower refining margins, the gasoil chart still looks terrible. Demand issues or summer doldrums?



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