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Soybean oil still trading well below 20 day wdma just like Diesel

Despite much stronger premiums for FOB paranagua Soyoil, we are treading water on soyoil futures. Some of this can be explained by the NOPA revision of last friday showing a bit larger crush but especially higher soyoil stocks in US that really showed little change from end of Mar confirming trend of higher usage of alternative fats like waste, technical and tallow. FAME 0 premium in Europe are down nearly $50/mt to +489 over ICE gasoil or flat 1235/mt in NWE still trading at $274 premium Vs BOGO which is still very high. Gasoil futures expiring today with -3.75 contango to september but it is time to watch sep/dec which is interestingly backwarded by +7 for ULSD northwest europe with still good diesel cracks. Lastly, UFOP chart is making the rounds of how large Biodiesel/RD production is when accounting all the global mandates. What is striking from this chart is that US, Brazil and Indonesia are leading the world in Biodiesel/RD usage accounting for 60% of usage. However it should be noted that when excluding Indonesia which is strictly Palm feedstock, the increase usage of Soyoil is predominantly in US and Brazil.

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