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Soybean oil nearby spread Mar/May down 837% in last 3 months


yes it is correct, we moved from +.21 to (-).57 in such a short time while flat price only down 11%. What this tells me is that Bean oil prices are not done yet. Even if you extend the spread to Jul24, you have 0.91 cents per lbs carry or 0.18 c/lbs per month for 5 mths. We are way over full carry through May. No sense in selling anything spot but can you sell the deferred? No way, with this SouthAmerican crop and a US farmer that is looking at locking in crop insurance which is much better for bean plantings than corn. South American markets currently closed for Carnaval festivities but on last FOB Paranagua Soyoil close were showing bids at -1100. Don't think that will hold long and wouldn't be surprised we much lower bids next week and until Brazil raises their mandates for a tsunami of oil. We have a large overhang of oilseeds that we must deal with and this will continue to promote margin for Biodiesel as long as gasoil remains strong but eventually will also pressure Soybean crush margins.


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