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Soybean oil careening down further led by SouthAm premium


The soy oil chart just simply is ugly and all indicators point to further downside. premiums FOB paranagua showed even more weakness with -1180 offered for May and -1300 bid for July. Argentina announced that prospects for further biodiesel shipments in 2023 to Europe are dim after having exported 1.2 Mil Mt in 2022. We can also see from EIA data for January that EU is exporting to USA 2X more biodiesel (mainly from Germany) than last year (39.06 Mil Gal or 167kt) while Renewable Diesel shipments to US from Singapore reached 26.58 Mil Gal or approx. 143kt which is actually a 5.5% month-to-month decrease for a second month in a row. BOGO is down 20% in the last 3 months and we can see from Biodiesel premiums in ARA that are trading at a $100/mt discount that demand in Europe is far from stellar. Soyoil remains 40euro/mt more expensive in Europe than Rapeseed oil while Sunflower oil has regained its status as the most expensive soft oil in Northwest Europe.

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