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Soybean oil breaks down as we approach 50% mark of Soybean harvest in Brazil

We are sitting barely above the 200 day and Paranagua soy oil premium collapsed overnight by more than a 100 points with bids 100 points lower. Bean Oil/Palm Oil (BOPO) spread is down >30% in the last 3 months mostly because of a break down of soybean oil as Palm remains resilient at $420/mt discount to Bean oil. Resiliency of palm related mostly to domestic demand in Indonesia for Biodiesel with higher mandates but now that Palm Proof of Sustainability no longer accepted in Europe, are CPO prices above $900/mt FOB justified? US already essentially bans the use of Palm (the highest yielding per hectare oil in the world) for use in Biodiesel with no EPA pathway available. Rapeseed oil remains the cheapest soft oil in Europe at 1090eur/mt. Think we see a race to test supports in next 4 weeks prior to more soy harvest pressure in Argentina.

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