RINs drop as July RINs generation confirms over-generation

1.98 Billion RINs were generated in July which is 16% higher than last year considering that RVO (Renewable Volume Obligation) have barely changed and could be argued lowered. Expecting that this situation will continue through end of Q3 as Biodiesel screen crush margin is now down 97% in last 3 months to 1.23 c/gallon or negative $369/mt so this is a large amount of negativity to carry through US govt debt limitation political discussions on even of a US election campaign. This is having a direct impact on soy oil flat price already but little on spread which is still 3 c/lbs through Dec23 corresponding to $66/mt backwardation. A lot more work will be needed when market realizes how much we have overshot RVOs this year. Meanwhile in Europe, Rhine river water navigation situation is grave strengthening backwardation in UCOME which for Q4 is $109/mt while premium of +$700/mt has made UCOME just under $1600/mt.