Renewable Diesel production has already reached 30,845 Mil Gallons by end of September according to the EIA monthly data release. Biodiesel production on the other hand is down 5.5% to 18,682 Mil Gallons for the first 9 months of 2023 vs same time period in 2022. This trend was expected as more Renewable Diesel production comes online.
What is most interesting about the recent EIA data is the evolution in the feedstocks data that shows a dramatic increase in Tallow use clearly at the expense of Soybean oil and Corn oil. Clearly the Renewable diesel industry is becoming more comfortable with less homogeneous feedstocks as we also see increasing UCO imports from China into the US. We should see an expansion of Canola oil use in Q4 data by the conventional biodiesel sector to meet winter demand. D4 RINs remain resilient at $0.85 despite the legal challenges on Small Refinery Exemptions that clearly spells trouble ahead for RFS in an election year.