The incredible growth in Renewable Diesel (RD)capacity in US is impressive but despite conventional Biodiesel nameplate capacity remaining same, it is clear that Biodiesel is being substituted by RD. As we expected, continued growth in RD will explode production numbers for Q3 and that was good enough to push down D4 RINs below 1.40. We think this RINs move is only beginning as data is 3 months old already. We are seeing big growth in feedstock use by RD particularly in Soybean oil +51% YTD through Jun at nearly 300 Kt/month while use of waste, fats, and greases dropped 16% month to month in Jun showing that RD plants prefer a more homogeneous feedstock. Soybean oil use at conventional biodiesel plants were up only 12.5% YTD to Jun. The pattern is clear. Expect much lower RINs later this year.
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