Increased Tallow and processed oil imports has pushed Soyoil use in the biodiesel/Renewable diesel to nearly 30% from 60% 2 years ago. The soy crushing industy in its ramp-up has failed to take into account the carbon intensity math of biofuels although much less stringent than in Europe where 70-80% GHG savings Vs a diesel reference is the norm. In the US all you need to do is increase your CI above 60% for the EPA and further for CARB LCFS credits. D4 RINs fell again and most probably headed back to 0.55 area before the Soyoil rally began. We are now less than 6 months away from Producer Tax Credit or 45z. As previously advised, would expect continued strong production of RD through end of Q3. NESTE announced that they produced 331kt of SAF in Singapore in the first half of 2024 but could only sell 105kt hence leasing of additional storage in Houston. Storage will be the key and most essential factor for Renewable diesel for producers in 2025.
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