Data shows that Aug could be a record month of 13.75 Mil barrels of diesel moving to Europe from US Gulf. A lot of this has to do with lower freight rates that have come down from nearl $60/mt in Jun to $30/mt now. This pressure on Diesel is never good for Biodiesel in NWE. Premiums were already under pressure on Friday as Gasoil barely moved but we are probably not far from a large gasoil futures pricing adjustment - am thinking at least $50/mt. News from US RINs generation on Friday shows again that production and blending in US continues to exceed RVOs. D4 RIN generation reached 5.25 Bil for the first 7 months of the year. Nearly 3 Bil Gallons was RD and nearly 927 Million Gal was either produced by foreign entities and imported. Conventional Biodiesel remains unchanged in US but Renewable Diesel continues to lead growth +39% y-o-y. Surprisingly Biodiesel screen crush margin remains strong in US as domestic diesel prices (HO) remain firm supported by good diesel exports to Europe while Bean oil and waste oils are weaker because of higher production and imports. RINs are still above 0.50 cents/gal encouraging further RD/Bio production.
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