Quiet Markets, Loud Signals: Gasoil backwardation, Brazilian soyoil premium strength, and locked in EU policy define today’s trade
- Henri Bardon
- Dec 23, 2025
- 4 min read
Today’s market continues to speak through structure rather than headlines. ICE gasoil remains the clearest signal. Front end backwardation strengthened again, with Jan/Apr widening to about plus 13, up roughly 26% on the day, while Jan/Jul moved to about plus 23.50, up close to 30%. This move is concentrated at the front of the curve and points to nearby distillate tightness rather than a broad repricing further out. Ongoing geopolitical tension is not translating into deferred risk premium.
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