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POGO goes negative on strong Gasoil and poor vegoil demand


As announced by Oil world, Soybean exports from US, South America, Ukraine and Canada are down 9% in the period Dec/Jan 23/24. Question is this de-stocking of consumption or actual poor demand? With USDA world ending stocks of soybeans coming at 116 Mil MT which is above trade estimates, it would appear we have too much stocks ahead of another looming large South American crop. No wonder prices falling but with corn falling faster than beans, it would probably mean that US farmers will plant more Soybeans in the spring. Meanwhile for Biodiesel, BOGO is down to +168 almost 50% in the last 3 months yet FAME 0 trading above +200 showing that demand maybe reasonable despite tight gasoil stocks in Europe. European RSO structure remains flat through Oct but at least relationships amongst soft oil in Northwest Europe finally making more sense with Sunflower oil being the most expensive at 869euro/mt with RSO at 860 and Soyoil at 850. Gross margins for RME remains solid at $240/mt.

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