After 4 years of extreme volatility Crude Palm Oil returns to historical relationship of $104/mt discount with Soyoil. It should be noted that the 200 WDMA still remains high so we could see more downside to bring chart into more of a price equilibrium. China slow-down drives all in Asia and probably rest of the world. There is no question that there will be an adjustment in excess of equilibrium on the downside. It will depend on Energy and of course Biofuels. Indonesia has managed to produce/blend 7 Mil Metric Tons of PME into their gasoil in the first half of this 2024 but trade has been discounting this already. It is the banning of palm in biofuels in EU that is also continuing to make its impact - it was already banned in US for biodiesel long ago. Only item excluded in the palm complex for the moment is the POME or palm oil effluent which is on pace to meet 1.5 Mil MT of exports per year since it is still considered an advanced feedstock under RED (Renewable Energy Directive). There is little to worry about the US growing season on Soybeans for the moment.
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