Sep 1 stock report on Soybeans was only slightly lower than expected in the US. Various reasons for this but mostly delayed exports because of logistics (dry Mississippi) and delayed sales. Generally the forecast for world wide oilseed production and crush is >25 million MT higher for 2024/25 mostly accounted by Soybeans. Harvest progress in US is already nearly 10% at same rate of last year and with forecasted dry conditions in next 2 weeks, we should see significant acceleration. Plantings in Brazil are slightly delayed at 2% completed but wet forecast should put them back on track by mid-October. Paranagua soyoil FOB markets remain strongly inverted with old crop Vs new crop at nearly 350-400 point premium. Northwest Europe FAME market very quiet with winter biodiesel (RME) $10/mt higher to 1153/mt in line with higher RSO prices. Soyoil remains the cheapest soft oil in NWE at 950eur/mt and 20eur/mt contango to Jan. Replacement Gross margin on RME narrowed to $72/mt. Strong D4 RINs in the US at 0.67 should continue to encourage strong Renewable Diesel Q4 production despite discussions on import curbs on feedstocks. Despite declining prices for gasoil, Biodiesel screen crush has been quite stable (note that formula does not include RINs but only BTC) but it is sitting on the lower part of the range.
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