FEDIOL reporting record high crushing for Rapeseed this past October yet RME premium strength continues in Europe as Gasoil is imploding (Heat crack down $15/brl this month) and crude now in contango through next April. Remind everyone that Gasoil backwardation from Dec22 to Apr23 was >$120 on Nov 4 and now is $40/mt! As we approach Dec5 deadline for Russian sanctions, we are seeing Russian crude being discounted at $30/brl meaning that we have substantial downside in products in our windshield. Biodiesel premium in Europe rising to offset drop in gasoil for now. Market still awaiting decision on Renewable Volume Obligations this week and refiners will be watching this carefully as their crack margins disappearing fast with tepid product demand.
Gasoil/ULSD dec to apr23 backwardation for Northwest Europe